10/13/2025

I received this on line analysis from a source I will not name but it is typical fo what you get from most all brokerage resources.

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Then, just as London traders were starting to think about where to close out the week with a cold beverage (myself included), a bolt from the blue emerged in the form of a ‘Truth Social’ post from President Trump, and the US-China trade war suddenly flared up once again.

Trump appeared to have been riled up by earlier news that China planned to tighten export controls on various rare earths, and other materials, many of which are critical for the semiconductor industry. Said move, per Trump, was ‘very hostile’ and ‘sinister’, thus leading to the US being forced to consider ‘many countermeasures’ on China, including the possibility of increased tariffs on Chinese imports. Perhaps most importantly, Trump also noted that there now appears to be ‘no reason’ to meet President Xi, as planned, in two weeks’ time.

At least we didn’t have to wait especially long to find out what those countermeasures might look like. Trump later, just after the market close (!!) announced an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods, as well as export controls on ‘all critical software’, both effective 1st November. I’ll say that again – both effective 1st November. Three weeks, or less, until TACO time, I guess…

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In short it is all Trump’s fault, who knew a sell off was coming?  Well look at my weekend posts. The percentage of stocks in bullish formation has been falling for some time. The wave count was five on five in multiple degrees of trend. I have been talking about a sell off for some time. For this guy it was an out of the blue shock, and he expects TACO, Trump Always Chickens Out, and will back off tariffs so the bull will be back. 

We can argue the chicken and egg of whether it was a complete Elliott Wave pattern or trump but my answer is simple. The technical pattern called for a top and reversal. There is always a fundamental event to justify the technical picture. In this case the fundamental event was Trump. 

That is not what the Elliott Wave Pattern suggests. And read the Monday WSJ. Gee two auto firms Tricolor and First Brand just evaporated, one cannot find $2 B dollars. Auto loan delinquencies are up. Youngsters are all in for stocks, and are no doubt buying this dip.  

DOW is up about 300, let’s see the close today, more after market close