Professor Elam

For centuries everyone assumed that all swans were white, well at least until the black swan was discovered in Australia.  Author Taleb argues that events do not happen gradually but in unpredictable fits and starts.  Well one need look no further than a few already gone by the by business names to see the wisdom of that observation

Remington Rand-typewriters and office furniture
Smith Corona-typewriters
Xerox-whoops our patents ran ou
Polaroid-whoops who expected digital
Wang, Control Data, Epson computers
Studebaker Packard Cord Dusenberg

Indeed change is not gradual, look at how cell phones and e mail change life at ATT. 
IBM missed the IT revolution and finally cast aside its stodgy ways but nearly lost its way.

Read the review of Black Swan.