Professor Elam

Alert student Gordon Carlisle posted this article about the economy.  The analysts suggest the S & P now at 1260 could fall hundreds of points.  Here are a couple of numbers to keep that in perspective.  In 1974 when yours truly gave up on the stock market and went back to UT to study for the CPA exam the DOW Industrials bottomed at 577.  That is about what it dropped from the 1972 high and where it landed. Recently it hit 14,400.  Today it is 11,500 or so.  In 1982 it had only climbed to 800 when the market finally took off. The post 9/11 low was 7,000 or so. So yes given the sick banking system we could fall further. For a real look at the lack of consumer confidence consider the price of MGM Grand.  The largest casino in Vegas has fallen from 100 to 35 since last October, a drop of 67%!  As Vegas goes, so goes America?  What is more optimistic than getting on a plane to gamble in an expensive hall where the odds are known to be stacked against you?  Indeed Vegas has been the hallmark of real estate speculation with $500K condos being quite common. Now the odds makers are saying , vis a vis the stock market, maybe not.