Professor Elam

Scott Burns does a good job detailing what has happened, and what is likely to happen in the future of investing. Please click and read.

My thoughts are as follows, this is an excerpt from an e mail I sent someone else in the investment business this weekend, thought you might find it interesting.

I got in this business in Oct 1972 working for Ross Perot in the eventually iull fated DuPont Glore Forgan which became DuPont Waltson before it went broke and was sold off piecemeal office by office.That happened to lots of fimes,

Goodbody

White Weld bought by Merrill

dempsey Tegler

and lots of others merger as Reynolds and Dean Witter merged as Bache was bought by Prudential and eventually all of them became one under the Prudential banner.  Back then so few people invested, that the few firms remaining in 1982 still had credibility as no one knew anything about any of them, a survey done in 1973 revealed that all anyone knew was the name Merrill and then there were some others, period.

Now two deaces after 1982, we have 1987, 2000 dot.com  bust, enron worldcome, and now subprime. 

And in a flash, Merrill, Lehman, (gee what happened to Shearson and Loeb Rhodes?) Morgan, all gone.

Their greed and lack of the financial discipline they supposedly preached is on display for all to see.

Okay,I think this is much much more like 1972-74 than 1987 or March 2000. From 1972 to the low Dec 1974 the Dow crawled down, I can recall sitting watching the literal ticker tape, at times it would literally stop, no one traded anything. Ten million share DAYS were typical.. I quit in August 1974, the bottom hit in Dec 1974 at Dow 577. YEar later this oversight would cause me to become a self taught technical analyst. The markets then bounced between 577 and 1,000, the 1966 and 1971-72 highs untiul 1982.  Then it took off and as they say the rest is history, till now.

The bottom in Dec 1974 was anything but obvious, I never knew the insurance regulators told the ins companies to sell their equities as Burns says but finally yields attracted attention.  

The foregoing makes more sense in context if you read Burns column first. 

DLE