Professor Elam

The
red and black bars are the new junior miners etf. The Solid Black line is UUP a
dollar index ETF. This is shown on an hourly basis to emphasize how dramatic
the shift really was. The dollar bottomed in this measure at Dec 1 just as GDXJ
and every other gold share topped. I ran this comparison using GDX, ABX, and a
small mine GSS, they all look the same, the more junior miners dropping a lot
more percentage wise.

In
three weeks the dollar moved up  about 4-5% and GDXJ dropped about 15%.

There
are after all commercial uses for oil much more than for gold and silver.  Oil seems to run ahead of a change in
the dollar. It started falling before the dollar rallied and has rallied as the
dollar probably has reached a short term top.

The
inverse relation ship is clear here, dollar down on main chart, GLD up at
bottom. This is a real dollar bottom for the time being, this is the first time
RSI has risen above 50% shown at top, since the Dollar top at 89 last March.

We speculate that the
dollar is overdone short term, pulls back for a couple of weeks through
Christmas or perhaps that is delayed until traders get back from the holidays
post Jan 1. If this will be a five wave move up in the dollar, considerable
short term strength lies ahead once a correction is over. At that point, we
will see how strong the gold silver oil rally has actually been.   Just a small pop in the dollar
has curtailed gold and silver shares.