Professor Elam

Wednesday Dec 23, 2009

Barack Obama's disapproval ratings are up to 46%, and this is just his first year. This is no surprise to a student of socionomics, the trend and mood are down!  Remember out template is the period from 1966-1982. We are now well into the 1970s. If Bush was Nixon, Obama is Carter. While Carter embraced different policies than Ford and Nixon, he finally suffered one of the worst defeats ever. The same scenario is being repeated. The only surprise is that political observers are, well, surprised. Note by the way that this is Not necessarily driving voters to Republicans, lest you think I am cheering for Republicans. They too are suffering low approval, the reason is the negative perception of all in office. 

A public enamored with mobsters (the Sopranos won tv show of the decade as reported here yesterday) and vampires (everywhere!) is not enamored with politicians. Indeed, Congress rates lower than the President, and did so during the Bush presidency, nothing has changed!  The claims that housing and the economy are improving which is not the case, will only drive his numbers lower, as they did Carter. 

The parallel of the New York City economic crisis of 1976 is now multiplied, read about Detroit and bankruptcy here. Detroit Mayor Bing admits the actual unemployment rate may be close to 50%.

We suspect a big issue this next year will be city state and university pension funds seeking Federal bailouts. Is a pension fund a bank worthy of TARP money?  Do pensioners vote?  Do taxpayers asked to support pensioners vote? 

2010 is shaping up to be an interesting year to say the least.