Monday Feb 8 2010
From the latest on Socionomics at the EWT website. Students have expressed puzzlement at my comment that he public is angry and social mood is negative. Here are some observations about what is going on.
Increasingly negative social mood is overtaking politics — and the U.S. stock market.
A recent CBS News poll put President
Obama's job approval rating at a new low of 46 percent. This is not
surprising from a Socionomics point of view:
Obama's job approval rating at a new low of 46 percent. This is not
surprising from a Socionomics point of view:
"Correlation with the stock
market, consumer confidence, economic performance and other measures
suggests that social mood is by far the main determinant of
presidential popularity… There are two reasons for this fact. First,
his actions, despite their endless analysis in the press, do little to
affect his popularity. Second, his popularity is dependent upon a
social mood and economy over which he can exercise no countertrend
influence."
market, consumer confidence, economic performance and other measures
suggests that social mood is by far the main determinant of
presidential popularity… There are two reasons for this fact. First,
his actions, despite their endless analysis in the press, do little to
affect his popularity. Second, his popularity is dependent upon a
social mood and economy over which he can exercise no countertrend
influence."
from The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior
"Anger in the Air" was the
sub-headline on television, when the January 19th election results
announced Republican Scott Brown the winner. The meaning was clear:
Anger among Massachusetts voters in the U.S. Senate special election
led to what would have normally been unpredictable: A Republican beat a
Democrat in what is arguably the bluest of blue states. Not since 1972
had a Republican had been elected to the U.S. Senate from the Bay State.
sub-headline on television, when the January 19th election results
announced Republican Scott Brown the winner. The meaning was clear:
Anger among Massachusetts voters in the U.S. Senate special election
led to what would have normally been unpredictable: A Republican beat a
Democrat in what is arguably the bluest of blue states. Not since 1972
had a Republican had been elected to the U.S. Senate from the Bay State.
"What a turn of events." That's what Diane Sawyer said during the January 22 broadcast of World News Tonight after a report on Ben Bernanke going from Time
magazine's Person of the Year to the possibility that he might not be
re-appointed. Even some Democratic Senators voiced disfavor of the Fed
Chairman. He was ultimately re-appointed, as the January Elliott Wave Financial Forecast predicted:
magazine's Person of the Year to the possibility that he might not be
re-appointed. Even some Democratic Senators voiced disfavor of the Fed
Chairman. He was ultimately re-appointed, as the January Elliott Wave Financial Forecast predicted:
"Social mood is still too
elevated to deny Bernanke reappointment as head of the Fed in upcoming
congressional confirmation hearings. But rising political tension
confirms that his next term will be far more stressful than his first."
elevated to deny Bernanke reappointment as head of the Fed in upcoming
congressional confirmation hearings. But rising political tension
confirms that his next term will be far more stressful than his first."
Just one day before that broadcast,
President Obama announced the "Volcker Rule," which proposes to
restrict speculative investments made by banks. Former Federal Reserve
Chairman Paul Volcker stood towering next to the President during the
announcement. The diminutive figure of Treasury Secretary Geithner
stood several feet away from the President. The setting suggested Obama
was leaning more heavily on Volcker's advice than that of his Treasury
Secretary. Following the announcement of the Volcker Rule, media
discussions revolved around whether Geithner would last much longer. On
January 27, Geithner appeared before the House Oversight Committee
concerning another AIG bailout controversy. One member even asked
Geithner whether he should step down as Treasury Secretary. Like
Bernanke, Geithner is also sailing through the choppy waters of an
increasingly negative social mood. Only time will tell if he's able to
keep his boat from capsizing as waters become more agitated.
President Obama announced the "Volcker Rule," which proposes to
restrict speculative investments made by banks. Former Federal Reserve
Chairman Paul Volcker stood towering next to the President during the
announcement. The diminutive figure of Treasury Secretary Geithner
stood several feet away from the President. The setting suggested Obama
was leaning more heavily on Volcker's advice than that of his Treasury
Secretary. Following the announcement of the Volcker Rule, media
discussions revolved around whether Geithner would last much longer. On
January 27, Geithner appeared before the House Oversight Committee
concerning another AIG bailout controversy. One member even asked
Geithner whether he should step down as Treasury Secretary. Like
Bernanke, Geithner is also sailing through the choppy waters of an
increasingly negative social mood. Only time will tell if he's able to
keep his boat from capsizing as waters become more agitated.
On January 27, President Obama's
lengthy State of the Union address included a direct rebuke of a recent
Supreme Court decision (allowing direct corporate contributions to
political campaigns). The cameras saw Justice Alito shaking his head
and apparently saying, "definitely not true." Supreme Court Justices
are rarely spoken to directly in a State of the Union speech, never
mind openly criticized. Chalk it up to Washington's growing political
resentments.
lengthy State of the Union address included a direct rebuke of a recent
Supreme Court decision (allowing direct corporate contributions to
political campaigns). The cameras saw Justice Alito shaking his head
and apparently saying, "definitely not true." Supreme Court Justices
are rarely spoken to directly in a State of the Union speech, never
mind openly criticized. Chalk it up to Washington's growing political
resentments.
The political strife mirrors recent
stock market action, which saw its worst three day decline (January
20-22) in months, breaking the uptrend line from the March 2009 low.
The NASDAQ lost 5.4% in January; the Dow Industrials fell from 10,729
on January 19 to 10,067 on January 29. It was the worst month for the
blue chips since February 2009.
stock market action, which saw its worst three day decline (January
20-22) in months, breaking the uptrend line from the March 2009 low.
The NASDAQ lost 5.4% in January; the Dow Industrials fell from 10,729
on January 19 to 10,067 on January 29. It was the worst month for the
blue chips since February 2009.
The Wave Principle suggests the
downward trend in social mood has further to travel. Our
researchindicates that what's ahead may be worse than a severe bear market.
downward trend in social mood has further to travel. Our
researchindicates that what's ahead may be worse than a severe bear market.
Professor Elam 
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