Professor Elam

Sat Feb 20 2010

John Fogerty, Bad Moon Rising

I started writing about the downturn in mood in 2008 when the movie Dark Knight did $500 M gross, there was a tip off. Recently we had  a Major kill several soldiers at Fort Hood, an Alabama college professor killed three other faculty members and wounded three others, and finally Joseph Stack flew his airplane into an IRS building in Austin, TX killing himself, an IRS worker, and injuring others. 

The Major and the Professor are  claiming insanity, but each picked their targets, brought a loaded gun or guns, planned the attack, and were successful in killing people.  Stack used an airplane.  Sounds pre meditated to me. 

But this is not criminology class but socionomics class. The mood is ugly. The Mayor of Las Vegas refused to meet with the President who has criticized  Vegas as a destination twice on national tv.  Now his Senate Majority leader is in trouble election wise and Obama announced he loves Vegas, well, we will let the pundits debate the validity of that statement. 

Our point is that negative mood brings on a bear market. Murder and war are the ultimate negative human emotion. We take no joy in reporting the loss of life but, this is the reality of a bear market. 

Consider that world wide bear markets allowed dictators like Hitler and Mussolini take power, they came to power near the low of the 1930s markets, it was the negative mood that allowed that to happen. You know the results.