Professor Elam

Friday May 7 2010

Dave Rosenberg moved from Merrill to the Canadian firm Guskin Sheff. He writes daily and is quoted in much of the financial press. Yesterday I posted  a graphic of your employment prospects showing the plunge in the Dow. For those that thought I was just being sarcastic, below is an excerpt as Dave dissects the employment stats from this morning, it is a rather different picture than the one the President painted this morning. My point is that many who aspire to the CPA designation never pass that exam, well, pick one you can pass and go for that designation, it will be far better to have some certification than none at all!

In another vivid sign that employers have the upper hand, the median duration of unemployment rose to 21.6 weeks from 20.0 in March (the average increased to 33.0 weeks from 31.2). Both are more than 50% higher than a year ago and both are at new all-time highs. 

The total pool of available labour now stands at a record 21.2 million, which is nearly eight million higher than the pre-bubble norm. So, to put today’s stellar headline figure into proper perspective, it would take another 28 months of gains like this to absorb the excess and reverse the deflationary tide that is now gripping the labour market. More than likely, this process of unwinding the idle capacity in the labour market will take at least twice as long as that.