Professor Elam

Sunday Dec 5, 2010

Jeff Bridges, movies have been much more successful during bear markets. His first big film was in The Last Picture Show (1971) as Cybill Shepherd’s luckless boyfriend. The name of the film, the theme, and the timing were bear market highlights. The film tells the story of a small Texas town hanging on supported by  oil production. The closing of the movie theater is synonymous with the end of the town. (Historic highlight-Director Bogdanoivich starred Ben Johnson,  long a sidekick to John Wayne proving Wayne correct in his sense of talent.) This release was on the eve of the new recovery high in the Dow in 1972. He further cemented bear market status in the aptly named Last American Hero (1973) and certainly nailed it with Thunderbolt and Lightfoot in 1974. He played Lightfoot to Eastwood’s Thunderbolt.  Lightfoot dies at the end of the movie, the result of a vicious beating by George Kennedy.  This coincided with the bottom of the modern stock market in December 1974 at Dow 577.  Rancho Deluxe (1975) reflects the upbeat theme of a market on the mend but even then the movie ends with his imprisonment.

In case readers think we are being hard on his career, consider that he was in one of the all time box office disasters, Heaven’s Gate (1980). That year saw a second oil embargo, gasoline lines, double digit inflation and the defeat of the last President in 1966-1082/84 bear market cycle.   Gate was  Michael Cimino's bleak anti-western based on events in 1890s Wyoming. Sheriff James Averill attempts to protect immigrant farmers from wealthy cattle interests, (imdb.com)  This $44 M budget took in less than one tenth that ($3.5 M) at the book office making it one of the biggest percentage losers for a major film, ever.

Bridges finished the period with 1982’s Tron, again from IMDB.com. With breathtakingly beautiful computer-animation (and the very first film to use computer-animation extensively), and presenting an original, dazzling world where energy lives and breathes inside a computer, "Tron" was way ahead of it's time. This may explain why the film was greeted with incomprehension from critics and audience members alike back in 1982.  Hold that thought, we will return to it shortly.

Bridges has been in a movie every year since but none seem to catch the fancy of the public. The reason, as one examines the film titles, is that Bridges continued to play bear market figures. Now understand he plays them well, that is his lot in Hollywood. But such figures do not resonate well with the social mood in a bull market. His portrayal of Tucker is probably spot on. Like Tron, the Tucker was ahead of his time with innovative concepts like a headlight that turned with the front wheels.  But the difficulty of starting another car maker in post WW II was just  too much and the venture failed.

In the Big Lebowski, again we quote imdb.com, When "The Dude" Lebowski is mistaken for a millionaire Lebowski, two thugs urinate on his rug to coerce him into paying a debt he knows nothing about. Lebowski is now billed a cult classic; its box office take barely exceeded the budget.

But now he is back on top. From the cover of GQ to Entertainment Weekly, Jeff’s time has come again.  Indeed Crazy Heart is the story of Bad Blake, drunk, down and out, and going nowhere as a has been country western singer.  Of course he meets a lovely young lady (Maggie Gyllenhaal) who incomprehensibly falls head over heels…. Anyway, after five Oscar nominations and no wins,  he won an Oscar, Golden Globe, and Screen Actor Guild awards.  All  three were  for portraying mostly  drunk Bad Blake. This Christmas he reprises no less than John Wayne as Rooster Cogburn in the Coen Brothers remake of True Grit (1969).  John Wayne completely re-made his image for a new generation in this film. Wayne crafted his persona as  the Real Hero in films like Stagecoach and Liberty Valance. However Wayne as  Rooster Cogburn  is more likely to have failed to correctly  load  a pistol while drinking. Grit  debuted near the start of the bear market for that era. As befits the current bear market, the Coens promise to stay more true to the ‘darker side’ of author  Portis’ original novel. Coming full circle, Bridges will also star for Christmas release in a sequel to Tron . This time it should resonate with a new generation of Facebook and Twitter followers.

Don’t get us wrong, we like Jeff Bridges. He is our age and even our height, and beyond that ,he is the clear physical winner. Bear markets are a result of negative social mood. Such mood is more likely to focus on down and out characters. Bridges has a history of playing such characters. Those portrayals are clearly resonating with a new generation experiencing their first big bear market.  Given that history, we expect the new versions of  True Grit and Tron to be winners