Professor Elam

Sunday February 4, 2012

Look under course content in Black board for you copy of an e book on Fibonacci Numbers. This will also aid in understanding the content of the new show Touch on Fox. 

And I got to looking at the month of March, things could get pretty interesting. 

Socionomics

100,000 Protest in Moscow Protestors braved zero degree F temperatures to protest the candidacy of Vladimir Putin.The election is March 4. I can easily imagine the above chart topping out, bullish percent, a month from now.  In other words, if Putin 'wins' social mood world wide may be as good as it gets at that point. 

Apparently the 'state' bussed in demonstrators of its own across town. That sounds like an echo of what we are seeing in the Wisconsin recall of their Governor. Unions  are busing in protesters for demonstrations to force the state to continue to pay all state employee benefits.  This article mentions a siege mentality in Wisconsin.   That term dates back to the Middle Ages when one group would surround a defended castle and set in for a protracted who can last the longest battle, a siege. A date has not been set for the recall electionbut enough signatures were gathered so that there will be one. If that also happens i March, we have another puzzle piece.  I moved my original piece about the New Civil War to the top of this blog for the time being. We viewed On the Waterfront in Ethics class this weekend and the maps are quite informative about what was happening in 1954 as well as now. 

Just checking, the actual US Civil War began April 12, 1861 and ended April 9, 1865, pretty close to this same time frame. 1865 plus the Fib number of 144 takes us to 2009, the year of the low in Stocks so far for this period of stagnation. 

Meanwhile Greece ponders spending cuts. Greece has 14.4 billion in EU bonds maturing March 20.  Of course Greece does not have 14.4 B in Euros and at this point has not negotiated a loan. If nothing changes Greece defaults March 20. 

Romney has won Nevada as I write. The next Super Tuesday will take place on March 6, 2012, and will involve contests in Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont and Virginia. It should be all over by then.  

Our point is that speculation on Russian elections and US nominees and Greek default will end in a cluster of days in March, only a month off. Recall that the low in 2009 was March 9 so we are nearing hte three year anniversary of that date. It seems reasonable then to muse that positive social mood may well peak by March. If confirmed by our internal indicators a powerful argument will present that the top in markets is in. 

A wiki article makes this point about the Ides of March. Hmm, not much has changed in 2,000 years, eh?

In modern times, the term Ides of March is best known as the date on which Julius Caesar was killed in 44 B.C. Caesar was stabbed (23 times) to death in the Roman Senate by a group of conspirators led by Marcus Junius Brutus and Gaius Cassius Longinus. The group included 60 other co-conspirators according to Plutarch.^[2]