May 23, 2012
This writer believes Facebook is too big to succeed! The insiders dumped their stock on the public and got rich. FB was valued at 33 times its advertising revenue. Google by contrast is valued at 5.5 times revenue. So FB was way over priced.
We learn fundamentals of valuation by studying accounting. This is a classic case where the early investors buying privately for less than $10 did very well, not so for the late comers.
This story describes the selective dissemination of information about sagging revenues.
FB is worth $29 assuming it has revenue growth of 40% a year for the next five years. Sure that will be easy.
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