Professor Elam

Thursday Feb 14 2013

From today's Wall Street Journal

Good times bring on inclusionary feelings. On the front page, Broad Trade Deal on Table. The US and the EU are launching a broad trade pact which may 'take two years to work through.'  There is no surprise that this would happen at a market high, the very expression of positive social mood. What is dubious, is whether the pact can endure what are sure to be hardening attitudes over the next two years as markets are likely to fall. I suspect the creation of the pact will not survive the hardening of feelings and beginning of the currency wars we address in the next paragraph. 

Earlier this week we mentioned the beginning of the currency wars. Today the WSJ has a graph of the plunging yen on the front page. The editorial page wonders about the appointment of Lew as Treasury Secretary who did not seem to know much in his hearing. That lack of experience will be tested as the currency wars become more serious. We will update on how this plays out at the G 20 meeting. Market tops happen over time not on one day. The emergence of currency wars is another warning shot that a change in market direction is coming. 

We have written about the massive changes coming in Higher Education. Just this week we read about one political science major, thinking that would land him a government job, who is out of work with a $100,000 tuition debt. I suspect he could have read Real Clear Politics and Moveon.org and learned as much for nothing. On page A3 an animal science major in Iowa lands a $50,000 job. That graduate actually has some useful knowledge. How long before the dawn breaks over  this factoid over the Higher Ed Scene?  

But the Personal Journal is where the social mood is really on display. Recall our observation a couple of weeks back that emerald green was a popular color this season, Chevy had chosen it for a special Camaro?  I added the bold to highlight the mania with color.Positive social mood expresses itself in bright colors of clothing, as welll as the desire to show off success, see our last story. 

Go Long on Teal, Purple

Designers have been sneaking some new colors into the palette, and teal and purple (two colors that pair well) have been fresh and popular, if not exactly daring, in many collections, including those of 
Nanette Lepore, Vera Wang, Naeem Kahn, Patrick Ervell and Tracy Reese. Some retailers seem pleased. "I'm loving purple right now," Ken Downing, Bergdorf's fashion director, hollered across a runway at the Tory Burch show.

Rent a Porsche

In Middle Age Crazy, Bruce Dern drove a Porsche 928, it's a Porsh A he said. In Risky Business Tom Cruise let Dad's 928 roll into a pond. Then and now, Porsche, there is no substitute as the ads say. So as Porsche runs with lexus in the quality survey, we have the Rise of the Rent  Porsche. Enterprise Rent a Car is adding an Exotic Car Collection as high disposable income  locations. Customers are more likely to upgrade just seeing the exotics from the counter. 

Recall that in 1967 Hertz featured r   black and gold Shelby Mustangs for rent. That too occurred at the top of the 1948-1966 stock market rise. Times change, people don't, high times make for a show it off attitude.