Professor Elam

Thursday Oct 2 2014

I suspect the final lows for this first move down lie ahead into next week. But yesterday we had a fitting item to celebrate what Joe Granville called the orthodox low of the 2008 meltdown. He noted that the largest number of new lows occurred in October 2008. And yesterday ona court ruling against investors, Fannie Mae, the architect off the housing debacle.crashed. 

FNMA

Yes friends and readers, we celebrate the five year jnniversary of a housing melt down with a 36% melt down in FNMA. A judge ruled against investors seeking something for their ownership. The Federal Government had insisted ona high dividend from the company in exchange for the bail out. Looks like a negative sum game for investors here. 

SPX Daily

On the daily chart the SPX has completed five wave up from the February lows. Suport lies at the previous fourth wave 19330-1925.

NYSE

Our friends at EWT have a five wave count comleted but from the March 2009 low. I frankly cannot come up with that in textbook fashion here. The better idea may be to watch the monthly parabolic which is now at  10264. A break of that would suggest that indeed, this is the big one. 

Hedge

HDGE eeked out a weekly buy signal but as one can see, the MAs  are not even flat yet. I suspect it would be wise to wait and see how HDGE performs after an extpected low this next week . If it stays in buy mode on the weekly PAR SAR, this owuld be significant.