Monday Nov 10 2014
This ‘n That
The 2006 United States midterm elections resulted in a sweeping victory for the Democratic Party which captured control of the House of Representatives, the Senate, and won a majority of governorships and state legislatures from the Republican Party.
General elections in the United States were held on Tuesday, November 4, 2014. The Republicans gained control of the Senate for the first time since 2006, and increased their majority in the House.
Wikipedia
This is an analysis of what has been happening since Year 200; it is not a partisan cheerleading attempt for either side. The stark contrast of the 2006 and 2014 elections might startle most observers. But it would not be a surprise to a socionomist, one who studies social mood as the ultimate driver of social change.
My take is that social mood vacillates in eighteen-year swings. We are in an era of economic stagnation which will likely stretch from Year 2000 to 2018. The previous negative era was 1966-1982 with 1982-2000 being an upbeat era.
The downbeat era of 1966-82 began with Lyndon Johnson choosing not to run for re-election. More surprising was the Phoenix like return of Richard Nixon after losing the President race in 1960 and the Governor of California race in 1962. That was followed by his re-election and then departure from office, a first for the last century. Carter handily defeated Ford in 1976 and then went down to defeat himself by Reagan in 1980. This alternation of affection by the public is typical of periods of stagnation. A ‘throw the bums out’ mentality prevails with massive shifts in political preference.
The period of 1982-2000 by contrast witnessed two very popular Presidents, Reagan and Clinton. The positive social mood created the perception that they were successful Presidents. This was clearly a perception that none of the contenders enjoyed from 1966-+1982.
Notice that the mood drives the perception; events do not drive perception which is internally generated. Bill Clinton thinks the public adores him. Obama meanwhile wonders what happened. The answer is lies in the internally generated mood of the public.
This era of 2000-2018 is a replay of 1966-1982. The Presidency changed from Democrat to Republican in 2000. In 2006 Bush lost the Senate and the House. In 2008 the Democrats re-took the White House. Change speeded up with the Republicans re-taking the House in 2010 and now the Senate and all the Governor’s races in 2014. Expect this political version of musical chairs to continue until at least the midterms of 2018.
Harold Hamm CEO of Continental Resources Inc lifted all of the firm’s hedges on oil this week. A hedge represents the purchase of insurance via options or futures against a price decline. With all hedges removed, Hamm is betting on a price rise for oil. While oil prices dropped this week, as I write Friday oil service firms are refusing to fall further. Service firms are the best early warning of a change in trend. Therefore it appears oil prices and service companies are completing the decline from higher oil prices this summer.
Families will be coming together for Thanksgiving and Christmas dinners. And the same scene is likely to be repeated many times. It could be happening with Uncle Ramon or Aunt Edith or Granddad Otto or perhaps Veteran Maria, back from Afghanistan. The majority of the family won’t notice their behavior. But after the initial hellos and howareyas, certain members of the group will drift off on their own. Armed with a book or Kindle, they came prepared; they will sit apart from the group until dinner is served. What’s going on?
These individuals all suffer from the same invisible handicap-hearing loss. Hearing aids certainly improve the situation but they do nothing to substitute for non-verbal communication, which constitutes about half of our exchanges. These individuals have wearied have being accused of ‘only hearing what they want to hear’ or intentionally ignoring someone speaking to them, from the next room out of sight. It does not have to be this way.
Position yourself in front of this relative before you speak. Get their attention first. Then speak clearly. Avoid engaging in conversations in a room with hard surfaces (no carpet or drapes) with multiple other conversations underway. This results in a a cacophony of sound to the hearing impaired.
It is not that they don’t want to hear you. But too often it is a choice. They can endure the inevitable barbs and insults about not choosing not to hear. Or, in surrender, they simply slink away to avoid any interaction at all.
It does not have to be that way. Go out of your way to engage the hearing impaired. It will certainly result in a memorable holiday for both of you.
Professor Elam 
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