Professor Elam

Tuesday Sept 6, 2016

My research interest in socionomics. This is a theory that states social action derives from unconsciously internally generated mood changes which are unremembered by the participants.

This is in contrast to the conventional wisdom which states social action results form individuals acted upon by external events, ie the news.

I sense lots of clues about where the topic of the Fall of 2016, the election, might be going. Let's get started

I don't see it on the website but the front page features a photo of Putin facing Obama on Day  2 of the G 20 summit. Putin is forceful and determined, staring down Obama. Obama looks at best puzzled. The caption might well be, I have read you and out foxed you at every turn, signed Vlad.

in the right hand column more file releases are ahead for Clinton, the column raises that issue of trust thing again.

Center, Populist Votes Jolt Europe. It seems for the first time in post WW II history, Ms. Merkel's Christian Democrats behind a populist challenger in a state election. And this was delivered by a party with a mere three year history.  France's marie Pen tweets All My Congratulations!  Gee why would this jolt or surprise anyone?

ON page A 10 Obama complains of gaps of trust which is to say no deal on Syria.

Brett Stephens column notes that all 17 solutions for Syria have failed. Well, not from Putin's viewpoint, it has allowed Russia to move deeper in control of Mid East Affairs.

But the most intriguing bit of news awaits on page A q15.  Richmond is the capital city of Virginia.  Its newspaper, the Richmond Times Dispatch endorsed Gary Johnson, the Libertarian Party Candidate. Stating that neither Trump nor Clinton meets the fundamental moral and professional standards expected of an American President, the alternative is Gary Johnson.

Negative social mood results in a throw the bums out social action.This is happening in Brazil where the President was impeached, in Venezuela where the President was mob attacked, in the US where an outlier won the Republican nomination and an outlier party is now being taken seriously, in England where they voted out of the EU, in France and Germany where both Presidents are out of favor.   This is not the case in Russia where Putin appears to be achieving what he wants, and in the process restoring Russian prestige, or at least respect.

This is big. The Libertarian Party has never gained the endorsement of a major city newspaper, much less Virginia sitting next to Washington DC itself.

I suspect that most individuals being polled are lying through their teeth, not wanting to  acknowledge they might vote for Trump.What most so called columnists are not grasping is that Trump only got 40% of the primary votes. Those were not votes for Trump, they were votes against another slew  of Democrat lite Republicans.  It was inconceivable that Trump would get the nomination.But Trump keyed into the Tea Party disenchantment with previous candidates. Sure he's unpredictable and off course and disorganized. But Real Clear Politics polls consistently show some 70% of the voters believe the country is headed in the wrong direction. If those 70% vote that conviction, the incumbent party will lose.

We shall see, consider this article from Of Two Minds, Trump by a landslide.