Professor Elam

Weekend June 17, 2017

See my newspaper column posted yesterday.  I suspect energy prices will bottom and shares rebound over the next three months or so. But are we seeing some signs of that now?

Bullish Percent

At bottom the PMO, a Decision Point indicator much like MACD, is rising. In the main panel the downtrend line has now turned at least sideways.  As noted in the newspaper column, price is once again testing the year long $45 support.

Weekly Bullish Percent or what happened in February 2016

I placed MACD behind the price chart, This makes fore a busy graph but it also makes another thing cleara. MACD peaked along with PMO way back in April 2016. The

bullish percent has been correcting for over a year! Now PMO in the lower panel looks to be bottoming as does MACD. And the actual BP indicator is making a slightly higher low than in February 2016.   The MACD histogram is also rising.  All this is encouraging as a first sign of bottoming. And note this is a weekly chart.

Weekly XLE Energy ETF

The same thing is apparent here. In the main panel MACD looks to be turning sideways.  The histogram is turning up. AT bottom is PMO trying to bottom at the zero line?  It looks that way to me.  At top OBV appears to be turning up. It seems reasonable to expect that the big oil producers will attract some buying as the media still wrings hands over the glut of oil and low prices.

XES Energy Service

All indicators will not turn at the same time. And so Energy Service is clearly in a weaker position. MACD and PMO are both still falling.The histogram is not moving up. Price over shot the 17level to 15.86. Here is substituted on balance volume at top, no interest in the market to buy XES. So that indicator needs to pick up.