Tuesday Jan 21, 2020
The Coronavirus is spreading in China. This may be simillar to the 2003 SARS outbreak.
The Chinese New Year is Saturday. Three billion trips are scheduled across China.
UBLIC HEALTHDangerous Virus Comes at Worst Possible Time for China |
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Coronavirus might sound like Day 2 of your Cabo trip, but it's causing concern across China ahead of one of the country's busiest travel seasons. On Monday, Chinese authorities reported the virus, which causes pneumonia-like symptoms, had infected 200+ people with three confirmed deaths. U.K. experts said the number of cases may be closer to 1,700. The situation is triggering memories of China’s 2002 SARS outbreak (another coronavirus strain), which infected 8,000+ people and killed 774.
What scares health officials even more: They believe the virus may be spreading from human to human. The Chinese New Year is this Saturday, and an estimated 3 billion trips are expected across the country. Shares in Chinese travel and hospitality companies sank yesterday. Looking ahead…the World Health Organization will meet tomorrow to decide if this needs to be elevated to a global public health emergency. |
Here is the plot of a potential fictional thriller.
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The World Health Organization always plays a delicate balance. Disease can spread faster than ever now that humans travel further and more often than ever. Think of the possibility of spread in an crowded airport where, due to weather, flights are canceled thousands of people are crammed into spaces created for hundreds of people.
The WHO is watching Coronavirus. The Chinese government is reassuring WHO they have this contained nothing to worry about. Translation, don't put a a freeze on travel to China.
A freeze on Chinese travel can only lead to less business, fewer deals, and, remember the dog food scandal, fears of infected Chinese Goods.
As number 10K is identified with the virus the WHO 'suggest' a Chinese Quarantine. Thousands of flights are cancelled. Travelers are not just stuck in China but unable to leave. Ship with Chinese cargo are unable to leave port. Others waiting for goods sit empty, with no alternative routes or cargo.
The Shanghai Stock Exchange trades down 10% in pre-market. That surpasses the 5-7% circuit breaker limit set in 2016. Chinese officials reluctantly suspend trading. When trading resumes, a second limit is hit.
Markets around the world follow a similar pattern……
Professor Elam 
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