Wed March 31 202

A reader wonders why the big fuss over Archegos losing money, you take chances uyou win or lose.

 

The answer is

how many Hwangs and leveraged funds are out there

In these swaps as the banks own the assets, any one bank has no idea of the total risk exposure of all of them, which no doubt is just what Hwang wanted

So when the margin call comes, Goldman  and Morgan dump om their fellow bankers getting out first

The losses are so large Credit Suisse still does not know the extent of losses to themselves

All financial calamities have the same start, too much debt and in the end, too little collateral

You will need access to the TAMUSA library to read these WSJ Articles.

https://search-proquest-com.tamusa.idm.oclc.org/news/docview/2507021057/fulltext/3C0F07C325C84CD9PQ/1?accountid=130967

There are additional articles and diagrams on swaps but these are not on proquest.

The author makes this comment

We have to hope that banks haven't been dumb enough to allow lots of others to borrow so much for such concentrated trades as Archegos, which appears to have eschewed risk management for bets on a handful of Chinese stocks and U.S. media groups ViacomCBS Inc. and Discovery Inc.

Isolated fund blowups are exciting, but they are a spectator sport for the rest of us. The risk at the moment is that hedge funds are united in their bets in two areas: inflation and speculative technology stocks.

Hope is not a plan.  Recall that it was just a short ten years ago that Goldman was so desperate for capital they had to grant Buffett a  10% preferred stock in the amount of $1 B to stay in business, Guess the GS boys have a short memory.

Past examples of banks getting themselves in trouble

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1837

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1907

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-Term_Capital_Management

contributing factors this time included

elevated prices

crowded positions

derivatives

In these swap arrangements the banks own the assets so the borrower need not disclose his position as technically he has no position the bank does

But then the banks have no idea what their collective risk exposure is.  Once again banks relax standards at high prices and tighten them at low prices.

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