Professor Elam

Tuesday Sept  14 2021

ACCT 5308 Ethics will write a socionomic themed paper in our contest with Univ of Delaware and William and Mary.

Here are a few ideas for paper topics.

Frothy Valuations'

In Monday's WSJ Andy Kessler suggests the market is failing a breathalyzer test. Airbomb is worth more than Marriott.

Tesla is worth more than the five big auto companies. The list goes on and on, a classic example of FOMO Fear of Missing Out and there is

no other alternative for investing. This is typical group think at market tops, herding abounds.

A Dearth of Babies

Many economies have now fallen below the population replacement  of 2.1 babies per family. This means populations are shrinking.  the problem is especially acute in Japan and Russia, the latter down from  165 M in  1989 to maybe  135 M now.  But nowhere is it as bad as Latvia and Lithuania, see page A 10 in today's journal. In rural Dagda, the high school is closed. There are no sit down restaurants. National population has fallen from  2.7 M in  1990 to  1.9M today, and most of the loss is younger people moving to Ireland and better paying locales. Demographic decline is near impossible to reverse, can it be down. Latvia disliked the influx of Russians during the Cold War, an attempt to make it more Russian. So they dislike the idea of the country being less Latvian.

China Open Your Books

SEC Chair Gensler calls on China to audit its auditors

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gensler-warns-chinese-company-risks-201516019.html?fr=yhssrp_catchall

SARBOX requires the PCAOB to examine the work of external auditors, annual reports are issued by the PCAOB.  So far Chiina has refused an outside look at its auditors. Gensler is warning they will be kicked off US Exchanges unless they comply. Chinese accounting practices have been under suspicion for years.  See Luckin. It is finally coming to a head. Does China think their strategy will work?  HEre is a socio cultural clash to be sure.

A SPAC Public Company to Trade Private Companies

Page B 9

Forge Global trades private firm shares  online. It is merging with an SPAC Motive Capital to beome pubic with a  $2 B valuation .An SPAC is a Special Purpose Acquisition Company. SPACs raise money to buy something, except the investor does not know what. This sort of whimsy was first seen in the Tulipmania of  1636. Now it is back big time. Do investors even know what they are buying?

Reputations Wax and Wane in Bull and Bear Markets

I will outline the rise and fall of Bill Cosby measured against the Dow Jones Average, he and Steve Wynne are the two biggest surprises to me

A socio theme is that famous personalities often lose their luster in bear markets.

Market Scams

The Archegos Swiss Bank was conned by Bill Hwang – Goldman and Morgan got out first with minor damage, not Archegos

The Theranos scam is now on trial. Elizabeth Holmes fooled some of the high profile individuals in America as well as Walgreens, now she claims an abuse defense blaming an ex boyfriend for her lack of judgment. This can be compared to tulipmania, south sea bubble, dot.com, sub prime mtge

Skyscraper Theory

Big projects are planned amid market highs, then in the downside of the project the project opens  to a terrible market

In  1928 the iconic Tower Life Building was to be the first of a complex of offices, shops, and apartment/condo living.

The Majestic Theater was the largest in Texas, an atmospheric theater.

Both openned in the summer of  1929, whoops

Marion McNay planned her 10,000 sf home in what is now Alamo Heights and it opened in 1931

It happened again in  1968 with HemisFair the  250th anniversary of the founding of SA

Now Graham Weston plans all sorts of new buildings in downtown SA, he is moving the Plaza Club, Frost Bank Tower, Centro

UTSA is expanding its downtown presence. Will this be an echol of the four new universities that openned in  year 2000 at the very top of the  1982-2000 bull market, none have lived up to expectations, UNT Dallas, A  & M Central Texas,  MITC Round Rock, TAMUSA

AIDS and COVID

Is Fauci making the same mistake with COVID that he did with AIDS

there never was a vaccine for AIDS, is there one for COVID

or is the better idea to treat patients so they can live with it

An Ill wind blows energy costs

also in today's WSJ, the wind has gone slack on the North Sea. EU countries depending on wind power are now seeing the price of conventional energy soaring

As social mood has grown to embrace solar and wind, and electric cars which will depend on solar and wind, is that a one way ticket to disaster?

EU countries are now discovering the danger of a lack of alternatives

The recent floods in Louisiana  are causing many to re think, what if I had to drive an electric car thru high water

If I had an electric car how would I re charge it with all the power lines down?  Point being that total reliance on electric vehicles could make a disaster just that much worse.

My take is that electric makes sense in small light vehicle like a Kawasaki Mule powered by an electric motor using numerous lawnmower batteries, most of my errands are within two miles of my home

Higher Ed Alternatives

Higher Ed  administrators still believe the demand for Higher Ed is inelastic, it will stay strong regardless of cost or how much faster cost outpaces reward on graduation

see sept 11 post on professorelam EY cuts cost of MPA

Also see coding schools, apprenticeships, more young men reject colllege, lower cost CC alternatives