Professor Elam

Monday 9/20/21

Markets topped in the dot.com mania March 2020. We are now a Fibonacci 21 yeras past that date. And bingo, market averages have reached new highs and apparently topped again. Scan the headlines in the Monday WSJ, today. As we have mentioned numerous times, social mood tilts negative. The US officially became a nation  1788 adopting the Constitution. So it is a fitting headline that after 233 (FIB) years, France recalls its ambassadors to the US and Australia, Britain is involved in the sub deal so all three major English speaking countries are in a brou ha ha with  our longest ally.

Adam Taggart had a two part interview with Jim Rogers. Simply put he thinks we will have the biggest bear market of all time over the next two to three years. He said he is not short yet, money printing Central Banks. Today's action may show that as always, Central Banks cannot overcome the end of five waves up in optimism. Junk bond sales are at a record while yielding the lowest returns ever for buyers.

If we are on the cusp of a bear market I am not sure about Rogers embrace of commodities. Sure silver is down  60% from its all time high.But it only stayed at $50 for a few days. And it is up three to four times from its lows under  $5. Seems to me a depression will depress demand for everything, including expensive electric cars.

Social Mood exists in smaller and larger fractals.  This school began in Year 1999-2000, so we are 210 years out in its existence. This past week TAMUSA had a big celebratory get together over the two newest buildings, one still under construction.  There were lots of positive comments. This may turn out to be a smaller fractal of celebration, just before a stock market downturn. At least that is exactly what happened after March 2020.