Professor Elam

11/2/2023

Dennis Elam

Friday  Nov 3, 2023

Word Count

Social Mood Trends More Negative

National Association of Realtors NAR Lose Anti-Trust Suit  Over  Fees, $1.8 B in Damages

WSJ Today

Social Mood drives social outcomes. Mood is not motivated by external events which is conventional wisdom. Positive mood is inclusionary and optimistic. This is why the public invests in stocks during positive mood periods. Negative mood is exclusionary, groups move apart and individuals do not invest. Mood is unremembered and constantly fluctuating.

Look at any index chart from January 2022 forward. Mood changed on a dime, and markets dropped substantially.  This column suggested the last two weeks that cozy relationships would be upended in this mood change of significant degree. The seemingly intractable 6% realtor fee is such an example. This is far more than other Western countries pay realtors.  Of course, NAR will appeal and lawyer up, foot dragging for years but mood toward them has changed.  Many realtors might have to get another job.

While Team Biden touts the economy, leaf through a business newspaper and see what is going on.

Stellantis lost $32.2 B during strike

Democrats Fracture on  Israel Laid Bare

Hollywood Strikes Cripple Small Business

We Work – Bankrupt

Commercial real estate lending slows, expect rising defaults

VF shares tumble,

Apple’s China sales slow

Wind Power Projects Hit By Rising Costs (the whole EV renewable power story is going in the ditch)

Bankman Fried guilty of stealing billions

Estee Lauder sales off, stock drops

And this I just from a couple of days read.

 Socks are rallying on a move of their lower downtrend line from the July 27 high.  The upper trend line is about DJIA 34,500 so that will be an important test.

Crude oil is in the very low 80s. On the daily chart it faces an important test of the  200 and  125 day moving averages around $78-79.

The purchase of Pioneer by Exxon Mobil and Hess by Chevron cements my comment that the renewable story is in the ditch,

I worry about our country.  After Obama ignoring his own red line in Syria, Biden’s three year successive cuts of the defense budget, the hasty ,and deadly Afghan retreat, no wonder Hamas now threatens attacks on US bases. With no Southern Border, it is a near certainty there  are many Hezbollah and Hamas agents here just waiting for a  signal here in the USA. Be on alert in both your investments and personal safety.