4/6/25

I got up early Sunday and went thru the WSJ Weekend with a yellow highlighter, so much to say, I need to get my podcast started as it is easier to talk on this than.

Let me hit the high points

All the recommendations now that the SPX is downj9% for the week no less is to sit tight. The WSJ column on investing even said to sell the winners and buy stocks down the most, does it never occur to these guys to go to t bills which I have recommended for months?  Clay and Buck radio show commented most people sell at the bottom. Well recommending the do not sell now while most have gains will result in exactly that, fortitude only lasts so long. MY vies is that

this is a  five of five Elliott Wave top, a 1929 or 2007 or dot.com type mania, the tariff is just the qualitative item which set it off.

OK her goes WSJ

Worst optic of the year Trump waving from the Beast on the way to the golf course as the market collapses 2,000 points, does he realize more people own stock than ever, he soon will

Bidenomics becomes Trumpnomics

NASD down 20% worst since COVID, yes the bear is o ff to  a serious start

BMW has a two page color ad pointing out they employ 120,000 with 600 dealerships not saying they are being penalized for that, observation how many people will need a $95K in a recession?

shades of Auburn Cord Duesenberg

South Korea President out, negative mood throw the bums out

Is religion coming back see House of David on Amazon

Peggy Noonan quotes Don Corleone How did things get so  far?  It was so unfortunate, it was so unnecessary.

How did things ever get so far?

A writer note singer protest how about art bringing people together, yeah where are Peter Paul and Mary when we need them?

Page B1  office workers bringing lunch to the office, the deli is too expensive

Investment writer suggests 401Ks have been decimates, not yet but they will be if they follow his advice

he says eventually it will recover, sure RCA topped in 1929 came back iin  1952

Buy what is down and sell what is up

C1 examines chevy and ford noting they no longer employ 850,000 but 180,000, true but if you add all the Asian and European factories and dealers

BMW, Mercedes, Audi, Kia, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, KIA, Subaru, etc, we are talking the same big industry the big three once occupied

Range Rover announced they are suspending shipping cars to the US what is a dealer withe a $10 M dealership to do, hello used car lot

and of course that dealer employs Americans

4/4/2025

The Bear is Here to Stay

Eventually we will find a bottom and start to recover, I hope.

Senator John Kennedy today

This column has warmed pf a massive top forming in the markets.  It is happening now.

An old saying holds that markets are governed by hope, fear, and greed.

The Senator is already at the hope level.  I would add another emotion between greed and hope. That emotion would be complacency. And that is where we are now with the majority of investors.

The reason for this complacency is that the brevity of the most recent bear markets.  The dot.com and the sub-prime bears lasted about two years. There are near no brokers or investors who weathered the nine years of 1973-1982 The Industrials peaked just over 1,000 in 1973. By 1982 they were trading about 800. Elliott Wave Theory suggests we are in for a similar lengthy period of stagnation. A perfect example of this complacency was last week’s example of Charles Payne on Fox saying the market was a screaming buy.

There is always a fundamental event to justify the technical suggestion of Elliott. In this case it is the Trump tariff scheme. From a political standpoint this is a loser. The reason is that none is aware of being ‘ripped off’ as Trump puts it. Everyone will be aware of a sustained stock market retreat not to mention higher prices from retaliatory tariffs.

The Clay and Buck radio show suggests today that one not watch their  401K value all the time. People, they said, tend to sell at the bottom. This is exactly my point. Most will not sell until the fear mode when real panic  has set in. That is a long way off.  The time to sell is now and retreat to to the safety of Treasury bills.

The sell-off has erased all the gains in the Industrials since last August.  The selling is so severe that both the Industrials and the NASD 100 gapped down on the open, even after the big drop Thursday.

The  prices of stocks, gold, silver, and oil have all dropped significantly. As with the 1930s. this is the onset of deflation, something most are not prepared for.  Crude oil just traded for $62.30, the lowest price since last September.  The charts suggest this is not a bottom. This bodes ill for the Permian Basin. The energy ETF XLE has collapsed from the recent high of 94 to 79. The selling has intensified all day with the Industrials now down over 2,000 points. Bond prices are rising as money flows from stocks to bonds. This set-up is similar to October 987 leading to the market crash the following Monday.  Trump is already calling for the FED  to lower rates given the panic he helped start.

Dennis.elam@att.net

4/3/2025

Here are explanations of elliott wave

 

Investopedia is a great site

Click here for Elliote Wave tutorial

 

Of all the charts I have examined this one of Bill Clinton's Presidency is the best

CAUTION    If you are going to examine social mood, forget you bias, forget political parties, look at the chart

 

 

Wave One

Bill Clinton, governor of Arkansas (where?) announces for President against George Bush the first

Democrats like Richard Gephardt think he cannot be beat so they do not run, who is this guy from Ark no less

Wave one surprises everyone no one thought it could happen and it does, Clinton wins the nomiatino and wins the election

Wave one surprises everyone  and this is a perfect example

 

Wave Two

After defeating the incumbent Republican, the House and Senate turn Republican

The purpose of a wave two is to assure all that wave one was an aberration, an outlier,  forget wave one

But this is incorrect,the new trend is in place

Bill Clinton drops James Carville as advisor and replaces him with Dick Morris

Morris advises move to the middle, Clinton announces the end of welfare as we have known it

Clinton comes roaring back

Wave Three

Third waves are amazing, they are the longest and strongest of the five, even more so than the last Wave 5

Clinton shmozzes with the Rep;ublican Congress and all is well, social mood is positive though as all politicians in office, Clinton believes it is himself and  his policies that are propelng the stock market

 

Wave Four

Under the rule of alternation, if wave two was sideways, it was,  wave four will be down. Remember the video of Bill Hillary and Chelsea walking to Marine One, whew, Hillary is not  happy.

Monica

Had it not been for a wave pf positive social mood, Bill would have been toast, but  mood rescued him, it was overlooked

Wave Five

A final sprint to the top, the Monica flap is over looked and Bill emerges victorious as the market makes a new top

Positive social mood rescues Bill

NOTE  Of course, Bill or the two Bushes would vigorously deny this claiming it was all due to them, uh huh

The markets have not touched the 200 month moving average since 2009, that makes for a reasonable target. It is now 22,266

Morgan puts recesson chance at 60%, tariffs larger than Smoot Hawley

Stocks have