• Professor Elam

    4/3/2025 7:13 AM CST

    I have assigned coverage of the 1930 Smoot Hawley tariff in each class.  The individuals assigned did a great job describing what  it was and the results.

    It is as if  we are replaying 1930 all over again.

    Hoover was elected with a big majority, Trump less so.

    Stock market peaked in Sept 1929 then crashed for three days in October. Now markets peaked Nov-Dec 2024, Market down over 1,000 DJIA points as I write this morning.

    then as now the advocates said this would help America. But as one letter writer in the WSJ comments today, who is going to build here if Democrats reverse all this in four years?

    Tariff wars should be targeted at specific targets not to make enemies of long time friends like Canada and Mexico.

    _____________________

     

    Meanwhile in the Ukraine, Putin plays out the same role as Germany in 1938. Then Germany took Czech thanks to British PM Neville Chamberlain.

    Chamberlain promised Peace in our time!

    Hitler invaded Poland six months later, France and England declared war and WW II began.

    Sudetenland

     

     

     

  • Professor Elam

    4/2/2025

    Important dates from 1929

    At the time he said it, in early October, he had good reason to believe he was right. On Sept. 3, 1929, the Dow Jones Industrial Average swelled to a record high of 381.17, reaching the end of an eight-year growth period during which its value ballooned by a factor of six. That was before the bubble began to burst in a series of “black days”: Black Thursday, October 24, when the market dropped by 11 percent, followed four days later by Black Monday, when it fell another 13 percent; and the next day, Black Tuesday, when it lost 12 percent more.

    Now various stock exchange indexes have topped last November – December. The DJIA, NDX SPX are all down since. The Smoot Hawley Tariff Act  of 1930 was passed in January 1930. Now Trumps' tariffs are passed today 4/2/2025. The DJIA is down 1,000 points post close.

    The similarity is amazing. Will Kenneth Hassett try to reason with Trump?

    Crash of 1929

  • Professor Elam

  • Professor Elam

    4/2/2025

     

    In 1933-34 there really were no accounting principles aka GAAP. Mr. Blough Chief Accountant of the SEC makes this point. After examining scores of financial statements he urges CPAs to create GAAP. January 1937

    Meet Carman Blough

     

    Now read his speech

     

    No surprise, the Committee on Accounting Procedure CAP was creatred that year 1937

     

    Accounting Principles Board 1959

     

    FASB 1973

     

    PCAOB 2002

  • Professor Elam

    4/2/2025

    Seems the son of the Colorado coach bought the car seven months before he declared bankruptcy.

    This reminds me of GM Financial here in SA, lendng to individuals with little to no net worth is a bad idea.

  • Professor Elam

    4/2/2025

    We have another entry in big time frauds, this one for $175 M.

    I am always hearing what a genius Jamie Dimon is but am always reading something like this. He admits it was a huge mistake. Screenshot 2025-04-02 at 9.31.52 AM

    I suspect more will come out on the failure of Morgan's due diligence. A judge rejected her request not to wear an ankle electronic monitor on the novel defense that it interfered with her teaching Pilates, now her only income. You mean she did not bury any of the  $175M in her back yard?

    Judge orders her to wear monitor

    Like Liz Holmes one wonders what she was thinking when the inevitable truth came out.

    Morgan bought the company thinking many of her 4 million customers would move up to Morgan bank accounts. When their first request only netted ten individuals, the fraud unfolded. She hired a Univ or Penn Professor to create the fake accounts.

    __________________________

     

    As all of you know I have numerous frauds on course content and on this blog.  I am thinking of the similarities between Homes and Javice. Here are a few questions.

    Did each start with an intent to fraud or did that come later?

    Holmes intentionally dressed like Steve Jobs even using a deeper voice addressing audiences. She had to know the machine did not work but to this day claims a failure is not a fraud.  Javice paid a Professor to create fake customers, why isn't he being proswecuted,  but I think she saw teh potential of fame and fortune if she could make it appear the business was 15x its real size.

    Is the publicity about Gates Zuckerberg Jobs et al actually motivating others to try to create a fabulous start up and then when it is doing well, they simply lie about the business. In both cases the lie paid off big time, for a while.

    I have suggested they get caught up in their own hubris and publicity.  It is amazing they are clever enough to create the fraud, and then hang around long enough until the truth comes out and they are caught.

    One of the textbooks we use this semester described fraudsters as nervous, never taking vacations, irritable, using counseling, etc. Sure you would think that but look at photos of RIta, Liz, Charlie, they are all calm cool and collected, even the photos of Charile outside the Fed courthouse where her lawyer has to be warning of the extended jail time if she fails to plea. 

    How come they have a scheme to move the money out of the US to a country where they cannot be extradited, as Ghosn has in Lebanon. It must be they believe they will not be caught.

     

    Morgan Chase lack of due diligence reminds us of HP being duped with Autonomy

    Add to that EY with Luckin and Wirecard as well as KPMG on several audits, gee the audit book warns  in asset audits of existence, occurrence, valuation, and ownership, why did no one check?

  • Professor Elam

    3/28/2025

     

     

  • Professor Elam

    3/28/2025

    Falling on His Own Sword

     

    The NFIB recently reported the net percentage of businesses raising average selling prices rose 10 points between its January and February surveys, which was the largest one-month increase since April 2021. Those results are consistent with reports from Eighth District business leaders who tell us they expect to pass higher materials costs on to their customers.

    Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem

    The stock market has been rallying since March 13. That rally ceased Thursday, March 27, and for good reason. That day President announced his 25% tariffs on imported cars and parts would be permanent. More to follow via reciprocal tariffs next week.  As the reports of his best-ever ratings by voters seemed to buoy his second term. Realistic observers should have seen this could be a probable top for Trump. Gerard Baker at the Wall Street Journal observed that Joe Biden’s popularity peaked with his inauguration. Is history repeating?

    GM dropped 7.3% and Ford lost 3.9% yesterday, Thursday. No wonder, as President Trump announced the 25% tariffs would be permanent. This is a violation of the very trade agreement he negotiated with Canada and Mexico, recall his rant against NAFTA? He says he wants everything made here and right now. In fact, companies have developed supply chains with parts made in other countries, This lowers the cost of the cars to Americans and creates jobs in Canada, Mexico, and elsewhere. Steve Jobs said Apple could not afford to make its products here due to cost and regulatory over-reach. One think tank estimates this will increase the average price of a car by $10,000. It would take years to build the new factories to bring everything back here, this cannot happen overnight. One wonders what Trump is thinking or what his advisors are afraid to say.

    The all -time high for the Industrials was December 4, 2024, one month after the election euphoria for Trump. It then began falling. His inauguration was January 20. The market then peaked January 31, 2025.  None of this is coincidence. And it fits perfectly with my contention that the various indexes Peaked November-December 2024. There has not been a new high since then.

    Energy XLE and energy service XES both Peaked and reversed  Thursday. The oil price has not risen above $70. Treasury yields fell today and bond prices gained. Money is flowing out of stocks into various bonds and bills.

    The parallel to Herbert Hoover and the disastrous Smoot-Hawley Tariff act of 1930 is amazing.  That, along with the crashing stock market and out of business banks ushered Hoover out of office.  Trump cannot run for re-election and has no one around who will oppose him. Democrats should be delighted for themselves but not for the country.

    Social mood is rapidly falling  to negative. Democrats are using four letter words to describe Trump efforts. Tomorrow is Take Down Tesla. And that for a guy who has done what Dems want, build electric cars. A Dem darling until he met Trump. Teslas are on fire across America. Bull markets are positive mood events. Bear markets are born in negative mood.

  • Professor Elam

  • Professor Elam

    3/26/2025Real Robots

     

    Here is a programable robot for kids for 99 Bucks

     

    99 Bucks really?