• Professor Elam

    Friday Feb  28, 2020

    Has the Financial Bubble Finally Popped?

    .Look for a needed pullback in stock prices and lower oil prices over the next month.

    Last line of this column Feb 23

    This column and the website, themarketperspective.com, have cataloged numerous examples of ‘top market’ social mood thinking over the last several weeks. We noted that Schwab’s $26 B stock deal for TD Ameritrade, now that many commissions are zero, was typical of how social mood from the last market bottom is ‘unremembered.’ Even more remarkable was J P Morgan’s purchase of E Trade at $13 billion, declaring the wealth manager was ‘ready to take on Fidelity. ‘

    Amid a 14% market decline over four days, I just saw my first ever Aston Martin television ad, lease your Vantage for just $1,699 a month (but zero down!). Again this is expansive top of the market evidence.

    As always, brokerage firms are recommending all stand pat noting how many times the markets have recovered in months after a big decline. I would remind readers that months before the October 1929 crash, the smart money sold out and left America for extended vacations.

    Indeed the same thing has been happening now. The Transports peaked in September 2018.   The small cap S & P 600 did so a month before that. Neither has returned to those highs. This is termed distribution as the early buyers sell to those late arrivals

    As a matter of full disclosure, while working for Ross Perot as a broker I was on the front lines of the 1973-74 50% DJIA decline. We heard all the same assurances then as now, amid pretty much the same negative social mood. Then scorn was heaped on Nixon, now on Trump.

    Here are some reasons to wonder if this is a repeat of 1973-74, 2000-2002, 2008-2009 bear markets, rather than a short term pullback like December 2018.  Yes there will be a low and a bounce but will that be repeated over the net two or three years?

    Political social mood is irreconcilable. No matter which side wins in November, the other will be even more furious.

    There has never been a stock market rise that lasted more than ten years. The two most important indexes peaked over a year ago.

    Breadth has been declining with ownership focused on the FANG stocks.

    Outlier Tesla recently traded at a price-earnings ratio of 183 to 1 while the S & P as at 20.

    Yes brokerages were absorbed in the 1974 sell -of but for nothing. Professionals who should know better paid billions (the sellers were willing to take stock not cash) for companies now already at a discount to that purchase price.

    The energy sector is already in a bear market.

    Trump has his wish, the FED lowered rates to near nothing. If this is the start of a major bear market, the FED has nothing left to offer in terms of stimulus.

    As noted on tehmarketperspective.om,, the next target for oil is the December 2018 low of $42.50. But with prices dropping over a dollar a day, now $45.72, even lower prices seem likely. There is no sign of a technical bottom in oil as of this writing.

  • Professor Elam

    Wednesday Feb 26, 2020

    Please contact me about this position.

     

    I wanted to reach out to see if you know of any accounting students who are looking for an entry-level position in Internal Audit. Credit Human (formerly known as San Antonio Credit Union) is looking to fill this role as soon as possible. The minimum requirement for this position is a Bachelor Degree in Accounting. If you know of any students who are interested in Internal Audit, please refer them to me.

  • Professor Elam

    Posted Tuesday Feb 25, 2020

    This column appeared in newspapers this past weekend.

    Note the last sentence.

     

    Markets Marking Time For Now

    It shows he’s (Buffett) certainly willing to swing at a fat pitch when it comes across the plate

    Thomas Russo, holder of Berkshire shares

    Well Thomas, I would say it shows that even Warren Buffett has succumbed to expansive social mood at what is surely a broadening top of the stock market.

    Buffett spent $36 billion upping its Apple stake according to its 2018 report. My point is that there are lots of contrarian plays going on, the exact opposite of how the same players began in the bull market of the 1980s.

    Back then, Buffett turned Bill Gates down on an offer to buy Microsoft shares. Warren said he didn’t ‘understand’ the company. Granted, Apple is a computer/phone maker while MSFT is a software firm. But back then, Warren was buying Coke and later Dairy Queen, as well as his favored re-insurance shares. All are, well, easy to understand. Berkshire shares have underperformed the S & P 500 while Apple has tripled the S& P 2019 returns. It looks like Warren is playing catch-up.

    Expansive social mood results in new market highs, and an urge to for an ‘inclusive let’s get together feeling.   BRK buys Apple, Schwab spends $%26 billion oi TD Ameritrade and now, Morgan Stanley sped $13 B to buy E Trade.

    This is the biggest deal, granted in stock, since the 2008 financial crisis. Of course it is as DJIA 29,000 is the biggest market plateau since then as well.   Morgan Stanley CEO Gorman declares he is ready to take on Schwab and Fidelity. So Wall Street Wealth Manager Morgan wants to be Wal-Mart to eight million E Traders. A the market bottom of 1974, Merrill acquired White Weld and Shearson did the same with Loeb Rhoads, both on the cheap. At this market top, firms are paying big bucks for competitors, the exact opposite of when the DJIA was 577!

    Meanwhile Victoria Secret has been sold at a one billion valuation, a fraction of what Lululemon went for with half the sales. The news article states Victoria Secret has ‘lost its way.’ We would argue the opposite, social mood towards racy lingerie has changed as the stock market has matured. In the1980s Victoria Secret was all the rage with gaga models gracing runway stages.   Of course, expansive mood brings on that ‘Let’s Misbehave’ social attitude.   Bear market attitudes are not so frisky. Are we seeing the first shot across the bull bow, remember there is always a mix of moods as markets slowly reverse.

    Crude oil prices have managed a weak rebound after falling over ten dollars. This is in spite of a strong dollar. That strong dollar has weakened emerging markets and resulted in more narrow breadth in US Markets. Look for a needed pullback in stock prices and lower oil prices over the next month.

  • Professor Elam

    Tuesday Feb 25, 2020

    Career Advice for Aspirational Accounting Students

    Develop a Brand so you do NOT sound like an accountant

    Here is an example.

    Did you know that all TAMUSA students have a free pass to visit

    McNay Art Museum

    San Antonio Art Museum

    Briscoe Western Gallery

    The McNay is having a Goya showing beginning March 5.

    Screen Shot 2020-02-25 at 11.04.53 AM

    Screen Shot 2020-02-25 at 11.05.03 AM

    Here is an opportunity to learn about a famous artist, Spanish no less.  Developing an interest and expertise OUTSIDE accounting will cause a third party to see you in a different light. It is important to avoid the 'green eye shade, bookkeeper, only concerned about cost not value' image.

    If you have not visited the McNay it is one of the crown jewels of San Antonio.

     

  • Professor Elam

    Monday Feb 24, 2020

    No kidding cause you will never get the chance to do anything like this again

     

    https://news.yahoo.com/ex-university-texas-tennis-coach-210049903.html?soc_src=community&soc_trk=ma

     

    The UT Austin Tennis coach sold himself out for a mere $60,000 cash.

    Geez, you can buy a Jaguar I Pace SUV,

    Big Whoop

    His chances of being a University tennis coach again are zilch

    And he gets six months in a lock up

    I never run out of new material in the ACCT 5308 Ethics Class

    https://news.yahoo.com/tearful-former-university-texas-tennis-210617121.html

     

    Center, who was fired by UT-Austin in March after an accomplished career that included National College Coach of the Year, pleaded guilty in April to conspiracy to commit wire fraud and honest services wire fraud. He agreed to cooperate with federal prosecutors. 

     

  • Professor Elam

    Thursday Feb 20 2020

    Arthur Levitt, former SEC Comm. questions Trump Admin idea to eliminate the PCAOB.

    As I have noted in socionomic presentations, the regulations come off at market tops, akka  29,000. the regulations go on

    at market bottoms as in after the Enron Worldcom fiasco. SARBOX was passed 99-0 in the Senate after the Enron collapse. Accountants lost their right to self regulate. Instead the Public Company Accouniting Oversight Board PCAOB was created to be a watchdog on public audits. The PCAOB regularly sample public audiits and rates them.  Regularly the so called Big Four as Arthur puts it fail these tests.

    This should be a topic of lively debate in the profession.

     

    full text of article

     

     

    The Trump administration is calling for the Securities and Exchange Commission to absorb the independent Public Company Accounting Oversight Board. The president's budget proposal says this would reduce duplication of function and regulatory ambiguity.

    Yet sometimes the government we seek to erase exists for a very good reason — we just have to recall why it's there.

    The PCAOB was established by law through the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. Sarbanes-Oxley passed the Senate 99-0 and the House by 423-3 in the wake of accounting-related scandals, including Enron and WorldCom, that led to trillions of dollars of investor losses and the bankruptcy of a once-venerated auditor, Arthur Andersen LLP.

    With the trauma of fraud and the burst dot-com bubble fresh in their minds, legislators and the Bush administration sought to draw up regulations for the previously self-regulating audit profession. One result was the PCAOB, a nonprofit organization, which reports to the SEC but is otherwise independent. It conducts regular oversight of auditors, the ones who are supposed to conduct oversight of public companies. Why do auditors need auditing? Because auditors make mistakes — some of commission and some of omission. Auditors can be sloppy. Auditors can be gullible.

    Auditors, in short, are not all-knowing. More critically, they often work for larger organizations that sell other professional services, such as advisory, tax and information-technology work. The so-called Big Four auditors — Deloitte, PricewaterhouseCoopers, Ernst & Young, and KPMG — all boast significant non-auditing business, which are growing sources of growth and profit, and a majority of revenue.

    By comparison, auditing is a prosaic, slow-growing business. The result is an imbalance of power within the firms: Audits may be how they're best known, but other services are more important to their business. What, therefore, is to prevent an auditor from softening a judgment on a company's questionable accounting practices if the client is dangling non-audit work? The incentives create a conflict between the interests of the auditor and those of investors.

    When I was chairman of the SEC in the 1990s, I called attention to this problem. Auditors, I argued before the dot-com bubble burst and the Enron and WorldCom scandals emerged, are critical to the trust that is at the heart of our financial system. "Sound and verifiable financial reporting is to financial markets what oxygen is to breathing," I said in a Senate hearing on auditor independence in September 2000. That's why Congress had long held public accountants responsible for upholding their independence — both in reality and in perception.

    It's not enough to be independent of other considerations in performing the audit. Investors must also have confidence in that independence. The auditing profession's failure to meet that expectation in the late 1990s is why the PCAOB was created.

    That is not to say the PCAOB's work has been spotless. Critics say, with some merit, that the board could be far tougher. Fines are relatively minor, and auditors rarely pay the most unpleasant price — bad publicity — when they do a sloppy job. In addition, from the beginning, the SEC's nominations to the PCAOB and supervision of the board's performance under Sarbanes-Oxley has fallen short when it comes to objectivity, independence and improving audit quality.

    But the PCAOB is, on balance, a very good thing. Consider the attention auditors pay to quality-control reports issued regularly by the PCAOB. When the board pegs an audit firm in a quality report, it's usually because of significant and serious concerns about accuracy and effectiveness. The result is a thorough review of the engagement, the lead partners and whether audit processes followed standards or deviated from them. Audit firms take these matters seriously, as they should.

    Abandoning the PCAOB would disrupt investors and markets. It would likely undermine confidence in the audit profession itself. After all, the PCAOB is primarily funded through an "accounting support fee" on public companies and brokers, and there has not been an investor organization I know of that has called for the PCAOB to be abolished.

    Would the SEC be able to command the same respect as the board? No. The commission's mandate is already full, and to meet the expectations set for the PCAOB would require an expansion of staff and expertise not currently funded by the Trump administration's budget proposal.

    This is an unserious proposal, and I urge Congress to reject it and thereby affirm that the PCAOB plays a vital role in our financial-market regulatory structure. We know what happens when we ignore the importance of auditor independence because we've seen it. No one wants to see it again.

    Mr. Levitt was chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, 1993-2001.

  • Professor Elam

    Wed Feb 19 2020

    A San Antonio Dr was found guilty of a $325 M fraud for false diagnosis.

    Do you suppose this 63 year old just began a crime spree at this age, or a few years back?  Of has he been working up to this over the years?

  • Professor Elam

    Dear Volunteers,

    Thank you for sharing your time and talent with the students in your community. You truly have been an example of inspiration to the students in your JA class. The important skills and concepts shared will enable them to be more successful in school, work and life! We could not do what we do without wonderful mentors such as yourself.

    We hope you enjoyed your volunteer experience with JA and we look forward to working with you again.

    We'd love to get your feedback!

    Would you mind taking 3 minutes to fill out this simple survey? Your input helps us improve our programs for future volunteers, students, and educators!

     

     

    Take Our Survey      View Event Photos

     

  • Professor Elam

    Wed Feb 19 2020

    this event will be Thursday Feb 20 at 3 45 PM Room 169 A STEM

    Our speaker will be Bryan Edwards.  Bryan's bio and intro follows

    As a recruiter for MGR Bryan wears multiple hats. He has to be a CPA, evaluate a company need or a candidate ability, and market continually to  make San Antonio aware of what MGR can offer.  As a result Mark Goodman, CEO MGR and Bryan are very active in the accounting community as well as on campus.  Mark is a past president of SA CPA and Bryan is the incoming President. Bryan has been the Committee Chair of the Businesss and Industry Committee, a position I held several years back. I recently did hte Uresti presentation you saw last week for the committee. And so I am able to get Bryan to campus, see how this works?

    Bryan Edwards is a CPA with over thirty years’ experience in a variety of roles.  He began his career with a Big 8 public accounting firm as an auditor, and later did tax work in public accounting.  Bryan has worked as a Staff Accountant, an Accounting Supervisor, a Financial Analyst, a Controller, a CFO, a Consultant,  Vice President of Tax in a family office, and for the past five and a half years as a recruiter with MGR Accounting Recruiters.  Bryan volunteers at his church, has chaired the Board there several times, currently serves on the TXCPA – San Antonio Board and will serve as President – Elect for the 2020 – 2021 year.  He has industry experience in a wide variety of industries including: Retail, wholesale, oil & gas, manufacturing, business services, real estate development and property management.”

     

    Bryan has a rolodex on companies and accounting personnel second to none. This would be a great time to ask about your own career planning.

    To further MGR Mark began a podcasst, just google Where Acccountants Go podcast. I see he is up to  # 163, I was number 2!

    https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/life-in-accounting-the-where-accountants-go-podcast/id1163362567

    zMark has taken his experience and turned it into book form, check this out

     

    https://www.whereaccountantsgo.com/books/

    ON amazon check out

    49 Tips for a Successful Accounting Career by Mark Goldman

     

     

  • Professor Elam

    Posted Feb 11 2020

    Students, this is a great opportunity. Harland Clarke invites students from multiple universities to participate in a day long

    externship. Students from different schools are paired in teams with a case problem. the problem is based on something that actually happened at HC.  The morning begins with an orientation to the firm and introductions. Teams then are arranged and split to work  with HC employees.  All are back for lunch and a keynote speaker. Then more work and presenations to the firm at 3 00 PM.

    Notably HC really turns their people out for this. It gives both HC and you an entire day to size one another up.  We have had students participate and get hired in the past. Whatever happens this is a great experience and I urge you to apply.

    ______________________

     

    We are now actively recruiting for our Spring Accounting Externship, happening on Friday, March 20th. Please find our marketing flyer attached. This opportunity is posted on Handshake as well as our company careers page.

     

    Apply here

    accounting summerinternship collegerecruiting harlandclarkecareers

     

    In addition, please feel free to share our latest social media posts to help continue to spread the word to your students:

     

    https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6633024956097667072

    https://www.facebook.com/harlandclarkecareers/posts/10162827744870114:0

     

    As always, thank you very much for your continued support!

     

    Please don’t hesitate to contact me with any questions.

     

    Thank you,

     

    Becky Jara, CAPM
    Program Outreach Specialist 
    Harland Clarke 
    15955 La Cantera Parkway | San Antonio, TX 78256
    210-697-1385 | 210-771-1952
    rebecca.jara@harlandclarke.com