Accounting & Investing Info for San Antonio A & M
Monday Oct 29, 2018
BRKB had a parabolic run up in January, it then cratered all the way into July. Since then I made it back to the January high, and then
collapsed 10% with the overall market. Perhaps this whole year is a clue that something is out of whack. There is an article in the WSJ today quoting several observers that the best my be in already.
October 27 2018
Industrials take out all four moving averages as well as the uptrend line from February 2018.
Transports are Worse
Transports Lead the Way Down , More Economically Sensitive
Russell 2000 Small Cap Stocks
Almost back to the February lows!
NYSE Sets New Low
Longer Term Views
Weekly DJIA
200 week MA above 20,000 is a reasonable target
Weekend Oct 27 2018
I also keep hearing that stocks have to continue rising because the economy remains strong. I've heard that at every market top in the last fifty years. But history doesn't support that argument. Stocks always turn down before the economy.
John Murphy, Stockcharts.com
In fact the Dow Industrials have declined 7.5% from the 26,600 high to 24,600 today. Personal computers have prompted the creation of many technical indicators. There is not space in this column to list all of them but many are now ‘oversold’ to the extent of making lower lows than last February. So is this any more significant than last February?
I agree with John Murphy’s comment posted above. John is generally regarded as the Dean of Market Analysis. He did work at CNBC but was let go for occasionally urging caution, and he was usually right. Now he writes at stockcharts.com one of the most popular charting programs available.
There are numerous reasons to suggest this is not an ordinary correction. And granted a market that has generally been up since 1949 can take a while to form a final top. But consider these facts.
No bull market has lasted longer than the current ten years of this bull.
As noted last week, the US markets have been alone in continuing upward. China’s Shanghai has shed 50% of tis value since 2015.
We may be testing the entire Bretton Woods Agreement of 1944 which established the US Dollar as the reserve world currency. Only the US and Canada are not members of the relatively new Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank. China proposed the bank in 2013 and would certainly like to see the US out of the picture currency wise.
The steel tariffs are now having the negative effects we warned of earlier this year. Manufacturers are having to raise prices which threatens the economic recovery. Recall we warned there are far more users of steel than producers of steel. So helping the steel producers penalizes many more manufacturers.
As politically evidence, social mood is not just negative it is fractured with polarization. That helped destroy markets in 1973-74 and is liable to do so again.
Oil and stock prices moved up in lock step the last three years so it is not surprising to see them falling together now. And as I observed in 2014, there is no lack of oil supply.
Finally a Dow Theory sell signal has been generated with Industrials and Transports falling under their 200 day moving average.
October is seasonally weak and month end draws near. While oversold, there is no sign of a turn to the upside yet.
Weekend October 27, 2018
Mark Goldman CPA and CEO of MGR Accounting Recruiters has authored a short book on Accounting Success. He has created the podcast Where Accountants Go
for some 104 episodes. 49 tips is a reflection of what he learned speaking with Central Texas professional Accountants. I am placing a copy of 49 tips on Reserve in the TAMUSA Library. I suggest you stop in and take a read. Each tip is a short few paragraphs. Here is my review from Amazon.com.
Friday Oct 26, 2018
Friday Oct 0ct 26
Thursday Oct 25 2018
The massive sell off the last two hours yesterday speaks to fear in the market so we are surely getting closer to some sort of important low and a subsequent bounce.
But the Moving Averages have not turned up yet
Wednesday Oct 24,2018
NYSE Advance Decline
Absolutely no sign of a bottom.
SPX % above 200 day MA
By the 200 day MA indicator, this is much worse than February, adding to the idea that a top dating back to perhaps 1949 is forming.
NASD Summation Index
Free Fall!
NYSE Summation Index
Fifth Wave Apparently in Progress
This may have been an exhaustion day of selling but really, fifth waves usually end without this much excitement so the end may not be here yet.
When social mood is strong, the waves are clear.
Weekend Oct 21 2018
Negative mood favors horror films (Fankenstein, Dracula during the Depression) and gangster films (Public Enemy in 1930s).
The first half of IT recorded great box office but the markets were still going up. No the 11th installment of Halloween
is second at the box office only to IT. 
The same thing happened at the market top of 1973. Cinema went from My Fair Lady and the Sound of Music at the top in 1965-66 to Midnight Cowboy 1969 and then the Godfather I and II and the Exorcist billed as the most terrifying movie ever. Crowds flocked to all of them as the dark movie themes resonated with the darkness of an oil embargo and market meltdown of 50% in two years.
The same thing is beginning to start now. IT cost $35 M to film but grossed $327 M. Expect the second half, I am guessing release date 2019
to really record box office bucks.
Wednesday October 17, 2018
Professor Elam 