Weekend March 25, 2018

Our previous post featured an interview with Pat Morita. He described how he nearly missed being cast as Mr. Miyagi.  It is impossible to imagine anyone else playing the role after you see the movie.  The producer admitted he nearly made the mistake of his life. But his  point of view POV was that Morita was a comedian form Happy Days.  He wanted an actor. As it turns out, Morita was a better actor than the producer imagined.

As accountants we are all subject to prejudice. Oh he or she is just a bean counter with no imagination or appreciation for the finer aspects of well life.  What is the old saying,

the know only the cost of everything but the value of nothing.

Here are a few examples of individuals who managed to over come this sort of bias.

Harry Morgan

Harry Morgan had a career spanning six decades.

He appeared in over  100 films and several TV series. But it was the break out role as Col.  Sherman T Potter, regular Army, on MASH that made his move from journeyman actor to star.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Richard Crenna

Crenna had more roles than I remember when one reads this article.

But my memory is that he was stuck as Luck McCoy 1957-63 in a tv comedy series. He just never could quite get off that Ford 9N tractor.

But he would have to wait until being cast as Col Sam Trautman in 1982'x Rambo to gain real fame on the big screen. So it took another 20 years or a another generation who had no knowledge of the McCoys for Crenna to find a new audience.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Louis Gossett Jr.

This actor had many films under his belt but again it was the break through 1982 movie, An Officer and a Gentleman, that launched him to stardom.

Bingo, see what I mean?  Louis finally captured that role of a lifetime that made him known  to all.

George C . Scott

Scott had memorable roles in Dr Strangelove and Anatomy of a Murder.

 

 

 

 

 

 

But it was the  break out role as Patton that made him a star.

For some reason the clips I pulled up on you tube had no audio, go to youtube.com and put in patton speech.

Clint Eastwood

Eastwood played Rowdy Yates on Rawhide 1959 – 1965

Note the socionomic angle here, 1965was one year from the top  of the social mood which took the DJIA to 1,000.

Eastwood navigated the move from positive mood 19481966 to negative mood with the Man with No Name better than anyone.

He then wisely returned to the US doing a series of westerns, Hang Em High, Two Mules for Sister Sarah, and then gained control of his career by directing and starring in

Play Mistry for Me.

 

Not so lucky

Bob Denver

Robert Osbourne Denver (January 9, 1935 – September 2, 2005) was an American comedic actor. He is known for having portrayed Gilligan on the television series Gilligan's Island and the beatnik Maynard G. Krebs on the 1959–1963 sitcom The Many Loves of Dobie Gillis.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Denver

 

Success in television causes actors to believe they can make the move to the big screen. In my memory, only James Garner or John Goodman was able to move from the small to the large screen and then back again with success.

Sally Struthers as the daughter on All in the Family thought fame awaited on the Silver Screen , only to come back to the series two years later.

McLean Stevenson left MASH which gave Harry Morgan his chance, only to find absolutely nothing.

My Message

Do not let your self get type cast.Develop other interest and hobbies. Do no let yourself be identified as

 

an

 

Accountant

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tuesday March 13, 2018

 

See my March 5 newspaper column below, here are a few headlines from today's WSJ.

Texas Capitol on Edge After String of Bombs

U K's May cites Russia Poisoning

Trade War Tensions Rise

European Car Makers Threaten Reprisals

Time Runs Out for Swiss Watch Industry

Why is Russian Gas in the Boston Harbor?

Every single headline is worrisome, not encouraging.  I am not cherry picking here. One lead article reports that having banned lap tops in class, students are unable to read their own writing, a break down i intra personal communication.  We cannot even write legible notes to ourselves.

 

Here is my  newspaper column from March 5 2018

A change In Mood Preceded the Change in Markets

Social Mood motivates social actions, not the other way around.

Social Mod is endogenously (internally) regulated, it is not prompted by outside forces

The recent action of world stock markets shows this to be the case. The change in mood occurred before the imposition of steel and aluminum tariffs, now heralded as causing the rapid decline in stock markets.

The Dow Industrials DJIA peaked Friday, January 26 closing at 26,616.71.   The DJIA then collapsed in a three steps down, two steps back fashion closing February 9 at 24,190 after hitting 23,360 intra-day.

Trump did not announce the tariffs until Thursday , March 1. That was the third straight day of decline. The move last week shed another 1,500 DJIA points.

I was quoted in one newspaper as observing that when the President touts the stock market in the State of the Union message, it is a sell not a buy signal. Realizing that maximum mood occurs at the end of a mania, it was fairly easy to see the set up for a reversal. In addition the markets had achieved a straight up parabolic status which is usually resolved with a collapse.

It is said that markets exhibit three moods, hope, fear, and greed. The markets reached 26,616 on greed. Now the markets are hoping calmer heads will prevail and a trade war will be averted. Oh yes, the President says trade wars are easy to win. I am not aware of a single US College of Business that teaches such nonsense.

The newspaper reports are plain to see. It is the job of the socionomist to report the changes in mood, which ultimately drive markets.

Here are excerpts from the Monday, March 5 Wall Street Journal.

“Manufacturing executives who make beer cans, cars, and refrigerators, warn of price surges, shortages, and retaliatory trade barriers on US exports if the US plan is implemented.”

“China Could Soon Have a Truly Competitive Car Maker

“Steel tariffs could also hit energy producers and hurt the goal of US energy independence, industry groups say.”

“China is building a new Silk Road as part of its Belt and Road Initiative through 68 countries.” The point here is that China is being inclusive building more routes for trade with itself. The US is being exclusionary building walls to trade.

Mary O’Grady warns “It will alienate Canada, which may look for new suppliers as Mexico has since Trump threatens to withdraw from NAFTA.”

The Editorial Board makes this observation. “The Voestalpine AG steel Plant in Austria only needs 14 employees to produce 500,000 tons of steel wire a year. In the 1960 this would have required a thousand workers. “The point being that technology has reduced the need for human involvement.

“Any sustained trade conflict threatens the synchronized global economic expansion.”

“President Trump revives threats to place tariffs on imported European autos. “

The examples are every where to observe. The optimistic mood has at least moved from greed to hope.

The bottom line is that the optimistic mood which drove markets to new all time highs has now abated. Change is in the air.