• Professor Elam

    Monday July  10 2017

    When the story of Tesla TSLA 1.42% is finally written, this week will be seen as a crucial juncture. On Friday, the electric car company started production on its highly anticipated Model 3, one day after its stock briefly fell into a bear market.

    The week’s 13% share-price decline as of Friday morning brings the company’s financial position into fresh focus given its historic reliance on the equity market. At first glance, the company has plenty of cash on hand—more than $4 billion as of March 31. But that is likely to go quickly.

     

    Tesla’s free cash outflow was $622 million in the first quarter. Since Tesla delivered fewer cars in the second quarter than in the first, there is a decent chance that number will worsen. Tesla said Friday that about 3,500 cars were in transit to customers at the end of June, the lowest tally in five quarters.

    –– ADVERTISEMENT ––

     

    Accounts payable have risen to nearly $1.5 billion. Meanwhile, Tesla has $7 billion in long-term debt outstanding.

    The Model 3 isn’t likely to improve matters, at least in the short term. Tesla said in the first quarter that it expected an additional $1.5 billion on capital spending before the Model 3 began production.

    Expensive CarsTesla's quarterly free cash flowTHE WALL STREET JOURNALSource: the companyNote: cash flow from operations less capitalexpenditures

    .

     

    million1Q20153Q1Q’163Q1Q’17-1250-1000-750-500-2500$2501Q 2015x-$557.80 million

     

     

     

     

    Analysts at Guggenheim Securities, which have a $430 price target on the stock, about 37% above its current level, predict that gross margins on the Model 3 will be negative 15% at the start of the launch. Gross margin won’t turn positive until the middle of next year, according to their estimates. Tesla reported an automotive gross margin of 27.4% in the first quarter.

    Tesla could forgo some of its planned capital spending if it chose to do so. But that would slow the Model 3 rollout amid increasing competition, which could hammer the stock.

    The good news is that Chief executive Elon Musk should have other options.

    Tesla historically has had no difficulty accessing the capital markets. The company has issued equity or convertible debt in every year since its 2010 initial public offering, most recently in March. And despite a bad week, the shares are up more than 40% so far this year.

    Yet Tesla needs to raise several billion dollars to meet its goals. Assuming a $1 billion cash balance and four quarters of similarly negative cash flow, Tesla would need to raise nearly $3 billion over the next year. At current prices, that amounts to roughly 6% of the total equity value. The more the shares slip, the greater the potential dilution of existing owners.

     

    Chinese technology company Tencent ’s recent investment in Tesla stock is an encouraging sign that there is appetite for large chunks of equity. While that deal didn’t involve fresh cash, it suggests other potential options besides a traditional secondary market issuance.

    So the past would suggest that the recent selloff won’t be much of a long-term problem for Tesla shareholders. Yet Tesla’s balance sheet and the increasingly crowded electric-car field suggest this is a moment the company can’t risk squandering.

    Write to Charley Grant at charles.grant@wsj.com

  • Professor Elam

    Monday July 10 , 2017

    This report was in the WSJ today.

    Without the tax break on one seems interested in the Tesla. This is a  drop per month of over 2,000 sales.

    We will also be discussing the cash flow crunch at TSLA this week. The two stories are related.

  • Professor Elam

    Weekend July 9, 2017

    The Pharm Table was begun by Chef Elizabeth Johnson in 12/2014.

    She was the Latin Cuisine Specialist/Chief Instructor at the Culinary Institute of America here in San Antonio.

    The first year 2015 Pharm Table was named of the Top[ 10 New Restaurants in SA

    2016 Best Restaurant for Special Diets

    Healthiest Organic Food Restaurant in San Antoni by USA Today.

    Screen Shot 2017-07-09 at 6.17.16 AM

    Pharm Table was featured in the Taste section of the Express News this weekend.

    Our Food Philosophy

    The foundational building block of our philosophy is eating a local, seasonal model; removing anti-inflammatory ingredients; and eating for your body type in order to achieve optimal health. Food is medicine, which is why we integrate elements of Ayurveda and Macrobiotics, and follow research from the Harvard School of Public Health and National Geographic Blue Zones Research. Tasting is believing!

    So, the business model is to offer unique healthy fare. And the other thing that

    Located downtown near the Tobin, Take Out is a big feature on the menu.  

    Screen Shot 2017-07-09 at 6.30.07 AM

    The other thing that caught my eye is the hours of operation, 11 00 AM – 3 00 PM presently Monday thru Friday. Plans are to open seven days a week in September.

    This means a much easier schedule to staff and prepare for customers. I have featured several restaurants with this approach.

    Unusual approaches are what marketing and managerial accounting are all about.

  • Professor Elam

    Tuesday July 4, 2017

    Have you considered the massive concentration of restaurants in the burger niche?

    National

    McDonald's

    Burger King

    Wendy's

    Jack in the Box

    Whataburger

    In and Out

    Culver's

    Carl Jr

    Sonic

    Hardee's

    Dairy Queen

    Streak n Shake

    Niche – Upmarket

    Five Guys

    Wahlburger

    Shake Shak

    Fuddrucker's

    The article below lists other niche chains most of us dojn't know as they are outside Texas.

    Local

    Chester's

    Sam's Burger Joint

     

     

     

     

    America's Top Ten Burger Chains

     

  • Professor Elam

    Tuesday July 4, 2017

    Shake Shack deubted at $21 and rose to $92.

    There are a mere 84 USA locations and another dozen outside the USA.

    Screen Shot 2017-07-04 at 7.43.56 AM

    Here is a textbook story of social mood.  The IPO was officially priced at $21 but jumped to $50 the first day of trading. For a company with a few dozen locations this is an example of extreme positive social mood. The positive mood boosted the stock price all the way to $95 in a mere four months. Understand these burgers carry high double digit price tags.

     The market cap is a mind boggling $1.28 billion dollars.

    Even today at $35.07, the price earnings multiple is a whopping 65 to 1!

    All employees must spend three days in an actual restaurant. The new CFO Tara Comonte did just that. But frankly reading this article, I am puzzled that Tara left giant Getty Images for a tiny niche hamburger chain.  IN her own words

    Ms. Comonte said her focus at Shake Shack is to leverage the use of technology to connect with customers as the company continues to grow. Shake Shack launched its mobile app earlier this year allowing customers to skip the physical line.

    My analysis is that positive social mood has driven stock prices, housing prices, and yes hambburger prices to levels not previously seen.The same thing has happened in various tech booms in Austin, just up the road.At those times one reads of $12 lunch cocktails and such.But of course that never lasts.

    I suspect Tara would do better not worrying about an app but worrying about how to downscale the menu when markets eventually cool.

    And really does this look like a burger and fries gal to you? Screen Shot 2017-07-04 at 7.56.01 AM
    It is interesting to see that much much more is expected from today's CFO than just producing the financial statements.

    Here is a comment on the Shake Shack Burger from an article on the Top Ten Burger Chains.

    America’s best fast-food burger is Shake Shack. Yes, it’s better than In-N-Out, and yes, it has its own secret menu… kind of (it’s called Danny Meyer’s hospitality philosophy). What started as a hot dog cart in Madison Square Park in 2001 has made history. In 2004, restaurateur Danny Meyer’s Union Square Hospitality Group won the bid to open a permanent kiosk in the park, and the lines, buzz, cult following, and even a begrudging review from The New York Times followed. Why is it so good? Quality. And one of the juiciest cheeseburgers (100 percent all-natural Angus beef, no hormones, no antibiotics) you’ll ever find on a soft, grilled potato roll (ask for pickles and onions!). Shake Shack’s vigorous expansion program — Theatre District, Coral Gables, Abu Dhabi, and now, Las Vegas, means that next year, and for the first time ever, there will be a Shake Shack and an In-N-Out in the same city, setting up a showdown that has been in the works for fans of both chains as their devotees, and word about both burger joints has spread. Place your bets….

  • Professor Elam

    Tuesday July 4, 2017

    How about 1,000 franchises in 18 months?  Read how Five Guys uses a basic platform to allow customers to create their own burger. All burgers are prepared to go, regardless. The real draw is the real french fries cooked in peanut oil rather than the sort of artificial creation one gets at MCD.  Screen shot 2012-08-04 at 6.49.17 AM

    As we learn in managerial accounting, one wants to build multiple models from the same basic framework whether we are selling cars or burgers. I used the example of The Permian Basin Hamburger Company in class this summer, the five guys refined the idea a bit further. 

  • Professor Elam

    Tuesday July 4, 2017

    I want to use this as an example of one of the uses of managerial accounting. Accountants are in demand as advisors. This business model described below solves many of the problems of a traditional restaurant. Here in San Antonio the San Francisco Steakhouse has gone to a meeting only format. That like Miss Bobo's solves many of the traditional restaurant problems. We will discuss this in class this week.

    Lunch at Miss Mary Bobo’s

    Lynchburg, TN and Fredericksburg, TX are destination cities.  They are the envy of every small town Chamber of Commerce in America. With less than ten thousand population, many tens of thousands of tourists flock to each city each year. Indeed the small towns of Central Texas are one of the top five tourist destinations in the State. Lynchburg is the home of iconic Jack Daniels Distillery.

    Our front burner example is Miss Mary Bobo’s Boarding House in Lynchburg, TN.  One can google the name to view a plethora of positive comments and images.

    There really was a Miss Mary Bobo. The former Salmon Hotel became her Boarding House in 1908. She died in 1983 but remained involved in the Boarding House until her death just shy of   age 102 in  1983. The House itself is classic southern style, two storied with a front porch and central hallway.

    The History of the Mary Bobo Boarding House.

    Zomato reviews here

    Screenshot 2014-08-31 13.46.04Today the house is divided into ‘dining rooms’ with a round table and chairs featuring a large Lazy Susan in the center of the table. Each table seats nine to ten with the House accommodating 65 maximum for each meal.

    Dining is by reservation only. Each meal has a hostess whose job is to describe the history of the Boarding House and, yes, turn the lazy Susan so each diner can partake of the various offerings. Each hostess answers questions, maintains decorum, and without anyone noticing, moves things along so that the room is cleared in time for the next group.

    As a college accounting professor I started adding up the advantages of this venue as the ideal restaurant set-up. Here goes.

     

    1. All seating’s are by reservation. Since you know how many are coming you can plan on exactly how much food to prepare. No wasted food or leftovers cuts the costs.
    2. The number of dining experiences can be expanded or contracted depending on demand. If three tour buses want to stop, one can have three lunches at 11, 12 and 1 PM. Or one can cut back to a single setting if need be.
    3. Jack Daniels owns the Boarding House now and promotes the culinary arts program at the Community College, named for Jack’s nephew, Len Motlow,  who took over from  Jack. Those students are on scholarship and work as bus boys and such. So there is the opportunity to interface with a local college.
    4. The Boarding House only operates at lunch. So no need to be there early for breakfast or late in the evening. There are no alcoholic beverages eliminating another potential cost control headache. Screenshot 2014-08-31 13.44.52
    5. Miss Mary’s operates six days a week from Monday through Saturday. This coupled with the lunch only business plan makes it much easier to staff the Hostess and kitchen component.
    6. The cost of food is low, and preparation is straightforward. We won’t need Wolfgang Puck in the kitchen. So the food cost is low and preparation within the ability of anyone capable of donning a white apron and chef’s hat.
    7.  The day I was there the entrees were fried chicken and meat loaf. The Hostess explained that every meal had the southern staples of fried okra ( a novelty to Yankees no doubt), baked apples, chow chow (tomatoes and onions), and a bowl  of beans. Chess pie (again, keep it simple) was the desert and ea or water rounds out the beverage selection. And the best for last part is, the price is $20. Per person for what is essentially a low cost meal. No doubt there is some haggling with group prices for tours but then that assures a steady stream of customers. Accounting wise this means the contribution margin ratio is high, which is a good thing.

    My point is that this business plan conquers many of the problems that plague the typical start-up restaurant. The menu is simple and once the right ambiance is established, things, well, get cookin’.

    Now I grant that last step is vital. But find the right older home, construct a story about town pioneers gathering in similar establishments in the 1920s, recruit a few friendly Hostesses, and you should be on your way.

    Destination locations are built by visionary entrepreneurs. Here is the vision, any applicants?

  • Professor Elam

    Tuesday July 4, 2017

    Here is an example of what I mean about articles illustrating managerial accounting.

    This blogger explains why Texans love Whataburger.

    When Harmon Dobson began what would become the chain in Corpus Christi in the early 1950s, he wanted Screen Shot 2016-07-21 at 11.19.45 AM

    customers to say, what a burger when it took two hands to move it to their mouth.

    He was a pilot and so hit on the idea of an easy to spot orange and white color scheme.

    Today Whataburger is still a private company but has moved to our own San Antonio on 281 in the

    Concord Plaza.

     

    Here is a comment from an article on the Top Ten Burger Chains about Whataburger.

    36,000, Really?

    More than 60 years ago, Harmon Dobson was inspired to serve a burger on a 5-inch bun, a burger so big that it would take two hands to hold, and so good that after just one bite, customers would cry out, "What a burger!" Thus the name of his Corpus Christi, Texas, original: "Whataburger." However you order your Whataburger: (triple, double, jalapeño and cheese, bacon and cheese, or the new Monterey Melt with jalapeño ranch and grilled onions and peppers), you really can’t go wrong. But the beauty about the classic, the namesake Whataburger that comes with mustard, lettuce, tomatoes, pickles, and diced onions on that 5-inch bun, is that beautiful blank canvas it provides. There are some 36,000 delicious different ways to make a Whataburger with special requests. What a burger indeed.

  • Professor Elam

    Tuesday July 4m 2017

    The  Old San Francisco Steakhouse off San Pedro in San Antonio is no longer a restaurant.

    The owners realized a market exists for meetings only out side of hotels. Now the venue

    is only open for meetings. This solves most of the existing problem of running a restaurant.

    See the previous example of Miss Mary Bobo's. San Antonio Institute of Internal Auditors now has

    all of our board and monthly meetings here. Management knows the number coming and only has one version of the meal to prepare. This is in contrast to a restaurant where the number coming is unknown and the menu is varied.

    This virtually eliminates waste and spoilage. And I am guessing, I will inquire, that without the overhead of a hotel, SFS is able to offer lower cost meals.

    This is a great example of Total Quality Management in action. The same venue now makes a higher profit with less waste.

    is Screen Shot 2016-07-21 at 11.29.14 AM

  • Professor Elam

    Tuesday July 4, 2017

    Here is another example of a restaurant that has overcome many of the problems of a typical restaurant.

    It is in downtown Odessa, which is not well served with restaurants. I see they dropped breakfast, which they tried for a while, and are now back to the original 11 AM – 2 PM Monday thru Friday schedule. That is right, no night time work, no weekend work.

    A basic idea of maunfacturing is building multiple models from the same platform. Henry Ford's Model A was offered in sedan, convertible, and pickup truck versions all off the same chasis.

    Burgers work the same way. Screen Shot 2016-07-21 at 11.44.23 AM

    Visit the site by clicking here.

     

    Further down the menu I see six different basic burger offerings. These are supplemented by some nine different extras, each at a price. So one can design one's own unique burger.

    A basic formula, daylight hours, and home for the weekend. Now that is innovation.