• Professor Elam

    Monday April 17 2017

    Tom Herman has inherited a great UT Football team, Charlie Strong said as much.

    Now read what Herman is doing om [ractoce to make the team better.

    Gee how do you suppose this has any connection with preparing for a certified accounting exam?

    Half of those taking any certified exam will fail. The other half will pass. The difference for many clustered around the 75 pass level

    is the difference of four m/c questions or one required research question over a four hour exam.

    I believe it was Ken Norton who said

    If you ain't sweatin' when you get in the ring, you are gonna lose.

  • Professor Elam

    Monday April  17, 2017

    Scott Maarcello was supposed to redeem KPMG's audit reputation. Instead he is now at the center of a scandal.

    He is a three decade employee who became vice chair of audit, managing a workforce of thousands.

    The accounting world was stunned last week when Mr. Marcello, KPMG's top audit official, was fired over a leak of confidential information. The firm said Mr. Marcello, who turns 54 this month, and four other partners were let go over the mishandling of a tip that gave the firm improper advance word about which of its audits its regulator planned to scrutinize in its annual inspections.

    After his 2015 promotion from national leader of the firm's financial-services practice, he faced the challenge of satisfying KPMG's regulator, the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board, which in recent years had scored KPMG'S auditing performance below that of other big firms.

    People who know Mr. Marcello said they were surprised such an experienced, knowledgeable auditor is accused of having gotten into such a fix.

    "It's a huge and disappointing thing to happen to such a fine individual," said Dennis Beresford, former chairman of the Financial Accounting Standards Board, the U.S. accounting rule-writing panel, who knows Mr. Marcello from common ties to a professional organization. He called Mr. Marcello "personable and extremely competent."

     

    Mr. Marcello declined to comment to a Wall Street Journal reporter at his Connecticut home. KPMG and the accounting board declined to comment.

     

    Class, I call your attention to page 204-207 of our ethics text. Those pages feature the, and I am not making this up,KPMG Professional Judgment Framework.

    It begins with this definition.

    Judgment is the process of reaching a decision or drawing a conclusion where there are a number of possible alternative solutions.  It goes on to name five components of professional judgment.

    That is all great but was completely ignored by Marcello.

    Perhaps he succumbed to all three sides of the fraud triangle.

    I have previously suggested that such continued ethical failures will eventually result in outside auditors becoming quasi employees of the Federal Government, Each incident like this draws the profession just that much closer.

     

  • Professor Elam

    Monday April 17, 2017

    CEO Stumpf and his SalesManager are gone, now shareholders will vote on whether to retain WFC Directors.

    The Director's 113 page report handily blamed Stumpf and his lieutenant for the problems. Both are now gone.

    As the NYC Comptroller says, fraud is a matter of accountability and oversight.

    Mr. Sanger, the former chief of General Mills Inc., has handled the board's response to the sales problems, culminating in a 113-page report April 10 that largely blamed Mr. Stumpf and one of his key lieutenants, who has also left the bank.

    Though Wells Fargo typically reaches out to investors around this time, shareholders have responded with many questions about the board's role, especially after the investigation results. For instance, some want to know why the board didn't act sooner to shake up the retail-banking unit despite concerns in 2014 and 2015 about improper employee practices that included signing customers up for fake accounts to meet sales goals.

    "The fraud at Wells Fargo is ultimately an oversight failure. That's why accountability — and real, meaningful change — needs to start at the top," said New York City Comptroller Scott M. Stringer. "The only question is which directors, and that is what investors are now assessing." As of Dec. 30, the city's pension funds had about $594 million in Wells Fargo stock.

     

     

  • Professor Elam

    Monday April 17, 2017

    Two men aged 47 and 53, are suing PwC over alleged improper hiring practices. PwC bills itsel as the place to work for millenials.

    The two men who appear qualified claim they were turned down because of their age.

    At issue is the intent of the Age Discrimination in Employment Act.

    I note the case has been filed in a federal  San Francisco Court.

    Does the act seek merely to protect those already employed or job seekers as well. Here is an excerpt from the article.

    Their legal arguments have gotten support from the U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission and a sympathetic hearing from some judges, including from the district-court bench presiding over the PwC case.

    "The history of the ADEA's enactment reveals that Congress was concerned not just with age discrimination within the workplace, but also with the barriers to older workers finding employment in the first place," wrote Judge Jon Tigar of San Francisco in February when he declined to dismiss the case.

    The ADEA prohibits an employer from depriving an individual of employment opportunities "or otherwise adversely affect[ing] his status as an employee" because of the person's age.

    It is the meaning of "status as an employee" that is hotly contested. Lawyers for PwC say the words clearly restrict the protections to the currently employed, not job seekers. "We are asking the court to apply the law as written," said PwC attorney Emily Nicklin of Kirkland & Ellis LLP in Chicago.

     

  • Professor Elam

    Monday April 17, 2017

    Today Monday's WSJ has a quite a few ethically oriented articles, and all are examples of bad behavior. So let's

    get started.

    This article contains details on how it was that UAL called on the Chicago Airport Police

    to forcibly remove passenger Dao from a flight. It seems airlines are obsessed with rules and so UAL has a rule based culture.

    In class Saturday I observed that Wells Fargo's Stumpf lasted five weeks after revelations about improper accounting to meet goals.

    I wondered if CEO Munoz would last that long. Already social media is calling for his ouster, gee that was quick.

    The Dao family has hired media savvy Tom Demetrio to sue UAL and the City of Chicago.

    He has already been airing press conferences.  He previously won millions of dollars for victims of the UAL Iowa crash in 1989.

    Here was have a complete failure to reflect on the consequences of a foolish action. As mentioned in a previous post,

    the negative mood against airlines was already there, this just brought it to the surface.

     

     

  • Professor Elam

    Saturday April 14, 2017

    An alert student wrote this about Bob Prechter's Chapter One

    I've heard it said that when the economy is doing bad that's the best time to buy stocks and if that's happening during a bad season then wouldn't it look like the market is recovering and doing well during bad economic times if most people are buying?

     

    Yes that is true, but the problem is that this is NOT what people do. People sell in bad times and buy in the best of times buoyed by positive social mood. Right now consumer confidence

    is high, the highest in yeas, and so margin debt, money borrowed to buy stocks, is high as well.. But during the 2008-9 crisis, people sold stocks and did not buy.

    This is the herding instinct. People can learn not to do this but most never will.

    We are stil controlled by our innate fear of danger no doubt going back to hunting wild animals on foot, recall there were no horses in the US until the Spanish brought them

    We learned to run away from the charging buffalo who represented danger.  And so it is not natural to run toward the falling stock market when everyone is losing money. 3,000 of the 5,000 NASD points gained from 1982-2000 occurred in the LAST 18 MONTHS OF THE MARKET RISE. Only then after sixteen years of advance did people feel comfortable buying.  They bought just in time for experience the dot.com crash.

     

     

  • Professor Elam

    Friday April 14, 2017

    Screen Shot 2017-04-14 at 5.31.50 AM

    I made the chart as large as possible to emphasize the wave count. Five waves down are complete as of February last year. Now a counter trend Wave A

    is completing. Note it has not exceeded the previous fourth wave high recorded in mid 2015. The most likely direction now is DOWN. Also note the weakness of the CCI at bottom.

    This same pattern is evident in stocks like Anadarko and Apache both of which turned down this week.

  • Professor Elam

    Friday April 14, 2017

    Socionomic theory holds that mood is endogenously regulated, it is internally generated. It is not the result of external forces creating the mood, rather the other way round.

    On occasion an event occurs subsequent to mood change which energizes the mood just beneath the surface. Consider this passge from a WSJ article on the UAL

    passenger fiasco this past Sunday.

    CHICAGO—An attorney for the passenger dragged off a United Airlines flight this week said his client was preparing to sue and that his treatment by United reflected the plight of many airline customers across the U.S.

    “For a long time, airlines—United, in particular—have bullied us,” said attorney Thomas Demetrio, who is representing the passenger, David Dao, a 69-year-old physician. “You don’t treat the people who help make you the corporate entity you are like Dr. Dao was treated.”

    Mr. Demetrio told reporters at a news conference here that Mr. Dao had suffered a concussion, broken nose and two lost teeth, and would require reconstructive surgery. Mr. Dao was discharged late Wednesday from a Chicago hospital, he said.

     

    The key here is the second sentence. Notice that the attorney states, for a long time the airlines have bullied us. The attorney has put his finger on a long simmering negative mood towards airlines. And no wonder. Thanks to the shoe bomber waits in terminals to board planes are longer than ever. Passengers are crammed into as many seats as the airline can put on the plane.  Over booking is common. Cancelled flights leading to the ever present videos of passengers stranded in snow covered air terminals on holidays spring to mind.

    And so UAL has probably wakened a 'sleeping giant' of negative social mood towards the entire airline industry.

    This incident for the airlines may turn out to be the equivalent of the Tunisian vendor who set himself on fire a few years back.  And then all of North Africa was on fire as decades of simmering unrest roared to the surface.

    Nassim Taleeb has written about random occurrences, fooled by randomness as he puts it. He labels such unexpected events as Black Swans.

    Let me suggest that a Black Swan event is simply the occurrence of an event which triggers an unconscious mood to suddenly, apparently surface. It appears that the news or Swan has affected the mood. But in fact it is probably the other way around. The event triggers an already present mood which then explodes as herding among individuals takes place.

    The Dow Transportation average usually gives an early warning signal on overall market turns. Consider the chart below.

    Screen Shot 2017-04-14 at 4.59.36 AM

    The 13 day exponential moving average has dropped under the longer 34 day in early March. Now the average is dropping much faster pulling the 13 day lower.

     Russell 2000

    Screen Shot 2017-04-14 at 5.03.58 AM

    The small cap Russell 2000 has done the very same thing in the very same time frame.

    I suspect the Trump Bump rally has ended. Indeed it may be that the entire rally from March 2009 has ended.

    Russell 2000 Monthly

    Screen Shot 2017-04-14 at 5.08.28 AM

    This monthly chart displays a clear five wave pattern.  

  • Professor Elam

    Thursday April 13, 2017

    Padgett Strateman is now RSM here in San Antonio. It is the largest regional CPA firm in town and the second larges after Ernst and Young.

    Learn about their Download Pathways Externship 2017 Flyer-San Antonio

     

    Pathways program by clicking on this link. It is a two day exposure to the firm and its people.

  • Professor Elam

    Thursday April 13 2017

    Screen Shot 2017-04-13 at 8.56.05 AM