• Professor Elam

  • Professor Elam

    8/12/2025

    A classic study in budget over run

    And n no lack of hanky panky to keep the tabloids cranked up. 

    Elizabeth Taylor  was married to  Eddie Fisher when filming began. But she and Richard Burton soon began, well seeing each other outside the movie set. 

    She would divorce Fisher and marry Burton ten days later. The tabloids had a field day.

    Elizabeth Taylor

  • Professor Elam

  • Professor Elam

    8/11/25

    Here is the story.

    trump says this is a little deal. No this after firing the BLS economist is another step in the wrong direction.

    : the act or practice of extorting especially money or other property

    especially : the offense committed by an official engaging in such practice
     
    Trump likes tariffs for their own sake, never mind any real objective or harm from them. It is a way to exert force in this Fight Fight Fight theme as Peggy Noon recently noted in her WSJ column.
     
    what next the old Mafia observation, Nice place ya got here be a shame if anything happened to it.
     
    Already Tim Cook at Apple is offering something for Trump to brag about, a big investment here rather than in China, to avoid the impossibility of building the apple watch here. So the NVDA deal is just an extension of a sort of new hush money to Trump desperation. 
     
    This is not a little deal, not at all.
     
     
     
     

     

     

  • Professor Elam

    Weekend 8/9/2025

    Some 19 million students and 1.4 million variously credentialed faculty will soon descend on America’s college campuses to begin the school year. For the first time in decades, I won’t be among the latter cohort, where I always found myself in an awkward double-edged position: a practicing journalist deeply committed to the academic mission, while also an observer studying academia’s foibles with journalistic scrutiny.

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    Now retired from an itinerant career spanning 28 years and four campuses, I understand why academia provokes so much skepticism in civilians. Most of the external griping focuses on politicization—that is, whether colleges are caught up in a unique gain-of-function experiment designed to incubate a virulent strain of anti-American insurgency. Although many college students are rebellious and need scant encouragement to become downright anarchic, the daunting ratio of liberal to conservative faculty acts as a force multiplier, all but ensuring antiestablishment orthodoxy.

    While campuses may be fraught with politics, certain quieter trends in academia loom larger than those generating the sound and fury. Subtle procedural shifts give rise to the question: Are universities still agents of higher learning—or are they more like hired hands in a largely ceremonial enterprise? A cynic might wonder if today’s revamped pedagogical imperatives are turning colleges into diploma mills.

    At my 1970s alma mater, Brooklyn College, my stuffy cliché of a philosophy professor liked to say that he saw colleges as finishing schools for upstanding, well-informed ladies and gentlemen. It sounded precious even then. Today his vision of graduating polymaths who could hold their own in any conversation seems as dated as the suspenders and bow ties he wore. Colleges are unleashing on society a plethora of young adults who are grievously unfinished.

    In terms of broad ambient knowledge, today’s college graduates function roughly at the level of 1950s high-school graduates. A recent American Council of Trustees and Alumni survey found that college students struggle with basic civic knowledge. (Consider the irony of demanding government reform, as campus protesters will, when you don’t even know why the government is set up as it is or how it functions.) One also recalls Harvard’s remedial math coursework for freshmen. Harvard objects to the word “remedial,” but the Crimson says the course is “aimed at rectifying a lack of foundational algebra skills among students.”

    How did this happen? While observers of campus sit-ins and disturbances lament that the inmates have taken over the asylum, far more concerning is that the inmates are effectively taking over the program. The powers that be, in their determination to prop up enrollment and retention, have favored students’ curricular preferences to create and sustain a nonthreatening user experience.

    Responses in survey after survey suggest that incoming college students seek, above all, actionable learning: a mix of vocational training and up-to-the-minute tech tutelage that keeps them on the cutting edge of the internet, artificial intelligence, etc. They value practical career prep and “hands-on learning” over the kinds of liberal-arts versatility that would have had my old philosophy professor swooning.

    The expectations of what students hope college will accomplish for them have turned upside-down in tenor over the past half-century. “Having a meaningful philosophy of life” was a top response in 1967. Today’s goal is to “be well-off financially.” Exit interviews with graduates who found great value in their college educations suggest that they feel that way because their degrees helped them find jobs.

    Colleges are listening and adapting. “Meet the students where they are” is a phrase one hears routinely at faculty and planning meetings, even though where the students “are” is functionally illiterate or, more charitably, unprepared for the rigors of traditional college-level work. This growing end-user orientation has resulted not only in an explosion in online coursework—since Zoomers, especially post-Covid, are disinclined to leave their rooms for work or dating—but a progressive loosening in graduation requirements that enables students to complete their degrees with little or no knowledge outside their major.

    Colleges mandate fewer general-education courses or required courses that fall outside a student’s chosen area of interest. Moreover, in subjects students are required to take, pressure is strong to grade generously. It would be hyperbole to state that colleges are embracing an “everybody graduates” formula, but movement in that direction is unmistakable.

    If colleges are evolving into glorified trade schools, how does one justify the soaring tuition that supports all those professors teaching all those airy disciplines that wouldn’t seem to fit neatly into anyone’s career plans? Shakespeare? Calculus? Queer Studies?

    Should education be end-user-driven or should it revert to the top-down model romanticized by my long-ago philosophy professor? Perhaps there is certain knowledge that a university is obligated to impart, whether you want it or not. If you don’t want it, perhaps you’re not college material, as we were once permitted to say without recriminations.

    These are complex questions that confound one-size-fits-all answers. But they bear serious thought before that next college application or tuition check is sent out.

    Mr. Salerno recently retired as a journalism professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.

     

  • Professor Elam

    8/7/2025

    Despite Trump's promise to bring manufacturing back to America, mfg is sputtering.

  • Professor Elam

    Thursday 8/7/2025

    Seven Year Old /creates Card Game

    After playing cards he declared he wanted to create a game. Say hello to Taco vs Burrito! He sols it to a game company for $1M. It has sold 15 M games on Amazon.

    Success can be had outside high tech.

  • Professor Elam

     

    FOMO Drives Tech Higher

    FOMO stands for the fear of missing out.  This emotion compels investors better read risk takers to buy into stocks which have experienced considerable rally, We have observed many times in this space that the funds an dthe public crowd into  fewer stocks as the market approaches a final high. It was Rdio Corporation of America in 1929. In 1966 it was the nifty fifty including IBM. In 2000 it was the dot.com stocks. In 2007 it was the home builders. Today it it is anything remotely connected with Artificial Intelligence or AI.

    How concentrated and excited is the FOMO regarding Nvidia? NVDA is the leading AI stock. The current market capitalization has risen to $4.4 trillion with a T dollars.  For perspective the entire Gross Domestic Product of Canada is $2.7 trillion. So NVDA is worth 1.48x as much as all the production of Canada!  Microsoft went nowhere when Steve Balmer was CEO. Now it is worth $3.9 trillion.

    The trailing price earnings ratio is a whopping 57. This means investors pay $57 for $1 of NVDA earnings.  If the price of a share of common stock is divided by the sales per share, we get price to sales. This is now an eye watering 30 times. Those sales dollars must be made of platinum. 

    There are 500 stocks in the SPX.  The Magnificent Seven tech stocks comprise one-third of the total value. The top ten socks comprise 38% of the value. The other 490 stocks fill out the other 62%.  Our point is that this is a crowded trade. It looks much like past market tops cited previously.

    But the market pushes higher despite these warning signals. We do not have a final high via the wave principle.  Non-ocnfirmation by the Transport index to the Industrials continues.

    Interest rates are approaching 4% on the Ten-Year Treasury note. This argues against the prevailing thinking of a FED rate cut. But the FED only sets the overnight rate. The markets set the longer-term mortgage and ten year yields. Trump claims to pay down the debt with his $40 B tariff windfall. But the debt is over $37 trillion. He will need a lot more tariff money to make a real dent in debt.

    Social Mood is a windsock, not a crystal ball. In times of trouble we like to be scared. Rotten Tomatoes, a movie valuation site, lists its 100 top ten horror movies for 2025.  Debuting Friday August 8 at theaters and IMAX no less is Weapons.  The script sold for an amazing $38 million. Reviewers call it an instant horror classic.  Could this be a premonition of a change in the FOMO mood?    We should know by year end.

  • Professor Elam

    8/7/2025

    Like the late Farrah Fawcett, Pamela Anderson now age 57, has had her ups and downs. But in the last few years after appearing in Chicago, and then the Last Showgirl,  she is Glamour's 2024 Woman of the Year.  Pamela said Showgirl was the script she had been looking for years.  Now she is co starring with new Beau Liam Neeson in Naked Gun. Just goes to show that your fifteen minutes may require some waiting. 

    Who is Pamela Anderson?

    hHere is A Glamour inerviw with her.

  • Professor Elam

    Weekend 8/3/2025

    Social mood theory, points ot that maximum mood occurs at the end of a move. At market tops we have a buying blowout, at bottoms a selling blowout. 

    And big projects are a signature evt of a market top.  Now two Senators embrace the idea of putting the future of SS into the stock market rather than those low yielding T bonds. No Senator would have suggested this at the dot.com 2002 market bottom, not at the March 2009 real estate bottom, when billons of value had been wiped out. But with new highs in major indexes, why not, no one loses money n the stock market! And of course the idea is endorsed by a Harvard Professor, emeritus no less.

    ____________________________

    ndrew Biggs’s “A Risky Plan for Social Security” warns that the bipartisan reform plan to provide long-term solvency for the Social Security system proposed by Sens. Bill Cassidy (R., La.) and Tim Kaine (D., Va.) is too risky (op-ed, July 25). But the Cassidy-Kaine plan is much less risky than ignoring Social Security’s current $25 trillion funding gap and allowing its trust fund to be depleted by 2033.

    Messrs. Cassidy and Kaine based their proposal on extensive evidence that diversified investing produces much higher long-term returns than reliance on low-yield Treasury bonds.

    Their plan would create an independent and professionally managed fund with a fiduciary duty to manage returns and risk conservatively across diversified asset classes over decades-long investment periods.

    Contradicting Mr. Biggs’s assertion about possible political manipulation, the fund would have clear statutory guardrails, including an independent board to avoid political pressure for preferential or unacceptable investments that would jeopardize earning the best risk-adjusted returns.

    No single solution will restore solvency to the fund, but the Cassidy-Kaine plan offers the opportunity for constructive dialogue and debate on politically feasible solutions to protect current and future Social Security beneficiaries.

    Ignoring this opportunity is what’s truly risky.

    Robert S. Kaplan

    Prof. emeritus, Harvard University