Thursday August 25, 2011

I have written a weekly newspaper column since 1998. I noticed in today's WSJ Pat Caddell and Doug Schoen, both former Presidential pollsters, are noticing the rising preference for a party that is perceived to serve the public rather than itself. I visited this topic in this recent column

 

High Noon for Political Parties?

Harry Brown, twice the Libertarian Party candidate for President, observed that if either party were to disappear it would be the Republicans. Let’s take a look at the history of parties in the US.

The Constitution does not make any provision for political parties. But campaigns require organization. The first two parties were the Democrat-Republican party that evolved form the Anti-Federalist Party and the Federalist Party.  The Federalists were led by Alexander Hamilton who was actually killed in a duel with Aaron Burr; perhaps dueling would bring an end to the continual squabbling we have today! The Federalists disappeared.   Anyway, The Democrat Republican Party split into the Democrats led by Andy Jackson and Martin Van Buren. The other wing became the Whig Party. The Whigs did not survive the slavery issue. Indeed their inability to re-nominate their own President, Millard Fillmore in 1852, caused the party to collapse by 1856. Now, hold that thought. A party that had elected a President disappeared in one electoral term!  The new Republican Party emerged to elect Lincoln in 1860.

Republicans would dominate the national scene from 1860 to 1932 as the North won the Civil War. Democrats would pass Jim Crow laws impeding social advancement for Blacks as well as voting rights. And so the South became the Solid Democrat South.

It took form 1800 to 1860 for the first party shift to take place, three generations. It took from 1860 to 1932, 72 years for the next shift. Hoover was a Republican and was blamed for the 1929 Market Crash. FDR took over and was elected four times, leading to a constitutional amendment that would limit Presidents to two terms. Again the big shift took three twenty year periods. It appears that after three generations family voting patterns finally are subject to change. We have seen this with the Kennedys, fifty years after JFK was elected, the Ted Kennedy Senate seat went to a Republican, there was not enough memory of JFK among younger voters to sway the vote.

Since 1932 the Democrats have held the House for all but a couple of House terms, until 1994. Republicans finally regained the House in 1994, only to lose it by 2006. Such a short term suggests the Republicans have fallen out of synch with the historic pattern.

Our point then is that political parties are born and seemingly die at the three generation mark. It is now some 80 years or four generations since 1932. We have seen the Party in the  White House change from 1992 to 2000 to 2008. At present the current resident is below 50% in virtually all ratings categories. But he can take solace  that Congress rates much lower than he does!

Other third party efforts have been notable failures. The Bull Moose Party in 1912,  the Dixiecrats of 1948, Independents George Wallace in 1966,  John Anderson in 1980, Ross Perot in 1992 and 1996, all failed in their efforts.  But, the TEA Party is not an organized party per se. It is an idea, something much more difficult to stop, just as Gorbachev about that.

Republicans have lost the White House with a series of RINO (Republican In Name Only) candidates said to be not much different from their Democrat rivals. That would include Gerald Ford (whose memoir was not printed until after his death, how’s that for the courage of your convictions?), Bush I, Bob Dole, and Bush II.  Mitt Romney has now assumed that same mantel.

Bush and his consigliere Karl Rove supported Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison in a poorly conceived race for Texas Governor against former ally  Rick Perry.  Kay, who had never lost a race, was trounced.  Needless to say there is no love lost on Perry’s part, and the slings and arrows have already begun.

Our point is that some 80 years or four generations have passed since the baton was handed to the Democrats. In the last 20 years, the two parties have jockeyed for leadership, trading Congress and the White House back and forth.

Big changes have happened at crucial turns in social mood. The US breaks with  England in 1776, a Civil War is fought in 1861, the Depression begins in 1931, and now, debt and a lead from behind strategy have many questioning America’s future.

Could the Rockefeller, Ford, Bush, Dole Republicans be headed for the same dust heap as the Whigs of 1852?  Michelle Bachman and Rick Perry are said to lack the requisite, proper syntax for Presidential candidates.  That’s because revolutions are not begun by those at the table.  Revolution is a messy thing, it results from the bold rather than the polished, just ask Fidel Castro about that. We suspect that the election of 2012 will determine whether the Republicans become Whigs, or a force once again.