• Professor Elam

    / June 13, 2011

    Professor David Albrecht has an excellent column on the SEC in

    Bad and Getting Worse.  As we are studying Acct regulation in Chapter One of Spiceland  this will make an excellent starting point for our examination of what went wrong. 

    Indeed the SEC has done little or nothing bringing few to any cases of prosecution via the PCAOB. Most SEC actions are well after the fact once the damage has been done

    Enron, Worldcom, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Lehman, Bear Stearns, Merrill, Countrywide, etc

    Please read this column 

     

  • Professor Elam

    Sat June 11, 2011

     Halliburton and Weatherford are coming to town.

    In my post February 2, 2011 I suggested a tour to a foreign country, the Permian Basin. My reasoning was that oil was back on the map so to speak, this traditional venue of Texas commerce was percolating along again. This suggestion of course was met with derision, laughter, and rejection. The Business Faculty was equally disinterested in this idea. 

    Now in the above link we learn that HAL has bought 150 acres, right down the road from our new campus at Brooks City Base. It was no accident that I arranged a tour of Holt CAT. They will be quite involved in this project as well. 

    And Weatherford is on the way as well. 

    I suggest that all re consider my suggestions regarding the importance of the Shale Gas find in South Texas as well as learning more about the oil and gas business in Texas. I wrote the business / oil and gas weekly newspaper column for the Odessa American for five years and continue to write for the Andrews County News. Andrews is one of the top five oil producing counties in the state. 

     

  • Professor Elam

    Sat June 11, 2011

    Screen shot 2011-06-11 at 9.04.32 AM Bob Lutz has a new book out, here is the first excerpt.

    Life Lesson from the Car Guy

    Lutz has worked at BMW, Chrysler and GM. He is the real deal, a real car guy like Zora Arkus Dontov of Corvette fame or Enzo Ferrari or female Jean Jennings at Automobilemag.com or Piech at Audi or stylist Boyd Coddington of Hot Rod fame. 

    The idea of an MBA is to produce a well rounded individual who can be successful across multiple industries. That's fine if you are going to sell oh say toothpaste or paper towels or refrigerators. As LJK Setwright observed in Car and Driver years ago, 

    There is no Refrigerator Monthly. 

    His point was that modern chariots inspire passionate followings among their owners  in a way that the Frigidaire  'keeping the beer cold' never does. 

    In this article Lutz talks about what it takes to get things done right. I think the word is passion as he describes working with mid level techs and designers on Friday afternoon about the details. As he points out the cost of a 3 series BMW is about the same as the actual cost of a Chevy Malibu but gee one is the Ultimate Driving Machine, the other scoots the kids to pizza after the soccer game. Hmm, ultimate pizza go getter machine perhaps?

    At any rate this is a good article for the cost class. We are discussing Deming and Total Quality Management. TQM is not about design creation but adherence to a standard. GM strayed from their design standards, began hiring Proctor and Gamble execs and next thing you knew, sure enough, the cars had all the appeal of a tube of toothpaste. 

    Please read this article. I am thinking it could serve as the base for a writing assignment on inspired design. Would Ralph Lauren be RL without Ralph?  Would Virgin Atlantic be what it is without 

    Richard Branson?  Will Apple stay Apple without Steve Jobs?  There are lots of directors but only a handful of Speilbergs, Howard Hawks, John Huston, Martin Scorcese or Kevin Costners. Alternatively as Eastwood observed who else did what John Wayne did?

     

    Here is the second installment, Japan's Advantage and 

    How Cadillac Lost its Shine from Monday June 13

    Lutz suggests in this interview, about 20 minutes but well worth it that 

    TQM goes too far.  The Auto and movie business are irrational. As I suggest above there is no Refrigerator Monthly. Lutz is saying a refrigerator is a rational cost decision, a car is no so much the case, nor is  a movie. As for TQM,  someone has to make a decision, respecting opinion is nice but who's in charge here?  This video is interesting in how the government regulations shaped the business. SUVs were exempted so Detroit made V-8 SUVs. He says the failure is lack of dedication to the product. 

    Interview Highlights in clude

    An intense focus on excellence

    Design build sell the world's best cars and trucks, not be the best corporate citizen. 

    Lutz notes that he was a macro guy, not  a bean counter, note the deal with the devil in the interview his MBA is in marketing

    Better cars, lower margins. Four problems for car industry

    1. Govt Policy

    2. Cost Focus

    3. Too much union power

    4. CAFE requirements, hostile media

    Now style and execution are important

    Interesting end to the interview about how the Toyota Prius was a mobil billboard for toyota, a great ad for green tech but GM did not do it as it lost money

    He makes the point that there is too much emphasis on cost structure, the bean counters and indeed 

    Sam Barshop the owner of La Qinta Inns said the same thing to us, too much short term orientation

    I recall Caroll Shelby's obit on Enzo Ferrari, Enzo got to run his own car company, no board of directors, no shareholders, and got to do just what he wanted

    Lutz likens Jobs at Apple to that sort of idea, an autocratic leader, this gets back to my idea that great companies tend to be run by visionaries, Ralph Lauren, Steve Jobs, but then a lot of them are really awful to work for and I would put Steve Jobs at the top of the list along with folks like George Patton

    Finally a pitch for American manufacturing

  • Professor Elam

    Has Target TGT lost is cachet?  As stores have left the malls, the battles between JCP, Kohls, TGT, WMT and I suppose Sears Holdings heat up. 

    Shoppers are making fewer trips and shopping more and more on line. What do you think about Target, or is this just part of the big picture as WMT sales decline 8 quarters in a row and the Dollar Stores get more business?

     

  • Professor Elam

    Wed June 8, 2011

    This week I mentioned the importance of reading the WSJ for clues as to what is going on as well as for context in understanding accounting. 

    Here is a good example that requires accounting critical thinking. I also mentioned that reading the Money and Investing Section was perhaps the best source of accounting and finance knowledge. 

    Oo today's page C 1 Office Owners Seek to Cash In. This article details that 'owners of big name office buildings' are putting them up for sale to exploit surging prices before it is too late.'  They are hoping to cash in on 'boom era prices paid by yield hungry investors discouraged by low dividends and interest rates.'

    Well didn't we see this picture before in 2007-08 with the rush to mortgages?

    Now turn to page C11 in the very same section. 

    REIT's Week to Party.  This article details that REITs have turned in great results the first months up 14%.

    REITs are up because of a flood of investor money into them. An REIT is a mutual fund of real estate which pays dividends from its net cash flow. Okay now which group is correct. The Office Owners seeking to sell their buildings, or the REIT investors that are effectively bidding up the prices of these properties?

    My bet is that the insiders are always right. The owners of the buildings are seeking to sell at high prices. As is typical of the last hurrah in a market investors always make the mistake of chasing yield, and buying at the top of a  market. 

    Which reminds me, Junk Bonds are getting weaker. REITs are a sophisticated Junk bond. Once the rentals fall the dividends fall. I worked for Century Development in Houston, TX in 1973. Century could not attract renters to a downtown office building to save itself. Once it is clear the economy has turned the values of REITs as in 2008 will collapse. 

     

    A  related article by the way reports that more municipal bonds are being offered.  The similarity is that municipalities like the owners of the buildings want to raise all the money they can while the time is right. 

    Meredith Whitney's latest take on municipal bonds is here.   Ms. Whitney up ended the muni bond market last November with a prediction of widespread defaults. Now she is back with more evidence. 

    Faded Malls Leave Cities in the Lurch is a perfect example of what she is describing. One city that issued bonds to finance a mall now has such low sales tax income paying the bonds off is in doubt. 

    In Michigan the Governor suggests eliminating some of the 1,773 municipalities. This of course is exactly the problem, massive overhead that is duplicated over and over for no good reason.

  • Professor Elam

    Tuesday June 7, 2011

    The soap opera begins early today (at least in the US), after the Irish Times reports that the IMF is open to delaying Greece's repayment of its international loans but believes a major restructuring of its debt would create untold problems in the euro zone, a senior IMF official said today. "Athens has made progress in tackling its debt crisis but cannot afford to relax the pace of reforms, Bob Traa, the International Monetary Fund's senior representative in Greece, told a banking conference. "If you want a debt restructuring that will really make a difference, it will need to be very large. Such a large debt restructuring would create untold problems not just in Greece, but also in the euro zone," Mr Traa said. But he did hint that the IMF was open to other solutions. "Stretching out payment terms, for instance in loans from euro area partners and the IMF, is a reasonable thing to think about because we have amortisation right at the end of the programme. This is a technical issue we can think about," he said." Unfortunately, as the rating agencies have made clear by now, such a move would be considered a technical default, and thus is unworkable as the very simple matter at the heart of the whole eurozone crisis is the forced marking of debt from mythical par levels (where the ECB has it) to market values (around half): a development which would lead to the insolvency of the ECB, something discussed minutes ago. All Europe wants is a phase transition that allows it to keep marking Greek bonds at par, and how this is achieved is irrelevant.

    www.zerohedge.com

     

  • Professor Elam

    Tuesday June 7, 2011

    Meredith Whitney has fired back with a more comprehensive report. She now maintains that states are in worse shape than they admit. 

    1. Rainy day or surplus funds are being depleted.

    2. GO bonds are being used to pay for current expenses, here we go again, borrow long to pay short term operating expense.

    3. Pensions are grossly underfunded. 

     

    And of course the Federal Govt is now less able to help and in fact is cutting back. 

    It is now only  matter of how they will default. I suspect the defaults will take many different forms. Already schools are charging students for traditional activities like being in the band or running track. 

  • Professor Elam

    Monday June 6, 2011

    The Finance Committee has produced a 600 plus page report alleging that Goldman Sachs bet against its own clients. As GS sold subprime mortgages they shorted that very market. GS was betting the sub prime values would fall. 

    While it typically took the US Govt hundreds of pages to make the point, Michael Lewis does it in chapter three of

     

    Screen shot 2011-06-06 at 7.41.46 AM The Big Short.  Reading for context is very important in accounting. Let's hope that everyone will do that this summer. This is another in a series of books about the financial meltdown that will improve your understanding of what is happening. 

  • Professor Elam

    Sunday June 5, 2011

    Groupon is going public, the market cap may well be $30 billion dollars. Financial analysis would have us believe that a company is worth the present discounted value of future earnings. The only flaw here is

     

    Groupon does not have any earnings, they have lost money every year, just like the dotcoms. Now who can this be? Read the article and we will discuss this in class. 

  • Professor Elam

    Thursday June 2, 2011

    SW Air LUV used to be that scrappy upstart with stews in hot pants and peanuts only. No longer.

    As LUV has taken on more routes and grown, the fare prices have risen as well. We will use this article for our first posting in Intermed I this summer. Please read the link, now ponder

    How can we use accounting knowledge to analyze LUV?

    More routes but what, LUV is not making any more money, what happened?

    Now think about the tools you have from cost accounting, what are fixed costs, what are variable costs for any airline?  What kinds of costs have increased with what results?

    What has this done to various ratios like Return on Equity, or Return on Assets?

    In retrospect was exapnding a great idea?  Now what?

    Now, how is accounting different from bookkeeping?