Friday Jan 15 2010
Bond popped this morning in spite of a stronger dollar. But counting the waves, is this just a fourth wave rally beneath an overall downtrend?
Accounting & Investing Info for San Antonio A & M
Friday Jan 15 2010
Google is having second thoughts in its China involvement.
While the internet is open in the US, at least so far, this is not the case in China. There the Chinese govt acts as a censor for comments it discourages about the government, which after all has never stood for election. (the kind where two candidates run…)
Google is providing internet services but they are of course being censored by the Chinese government. What to do?
From wikipedia, I copy and pasted the links do not work
Crossing the Rubicon is a metaphor for deliberately proceeding past a point of no return. The original crossing of the Rubicon occurred in 49 BC when Julius Caesar directed his legions across the river towards Rome in defiance of the Roman Senate. At this occasion Caesar is reported to have said "alea iacta est" ("the die is cast"). By the way, have you read what happened next?
We will be discussing ethics this semester. Like Caesar crossing the Rubicon, Cortez burned his ship once he reached the Yucatan, there would be no going back to Spain for the time being.
Has Google crossed their Rubicon? What leverage does Google have over China, if any? Is there a point at which Google says we are out of here? Will the Chinese have learned enough about Google to mimic the service, they are famous thieves of intellectual property anyway. At that point will Google have sold its soul for doing business in the world's most populous yet repressive country?
Just wondering……
Thursday Jan 14 2009
We put a longer 21 and 55 bar exponential moving average on
the bond chart. These MAs give infrequent but accurate changes in direction to
a market. This market turned down this past summer. This was the pullback in
stocks and money then moved from bonds to stocks. In addition the government
has had big supply but so far big demand for its debt. Still, the EXP MAs have
turned down not up since. At top the RSI remains under the 50% mark. At bottom
the histogram has also turned down. So for now the market prefers stocks to
bonds. We are witnessing a weak
counter trend rally after the big fall at the end of December.
Funny thing, back then in 1987 it was a June July cross over as well! From there bonds dropped 14 points to
the low in October. While a
past incident is no indication of what may happen, this is a similar set up.
Optimism has blossomed as thought the 2008
crash never happened. Investors are flocking to bond funds and REITs which just
hit new highs. Yet apartment rental vacancies are high and adjustable mortgages
are being re set. Fundamentally we
have a set up here for disappointment again.
The red black bars are ICF the AMEX Real Estate Investment Trust. The Line behind it is the JNK or Junk bond ETF. At bottom however is that rush to safety known as the 30 year bond price. So investors are eschewing Govt Bonds and rushing to the high yields of REITs and JUNK bonds. Gee, this is hardly a risk averse atmosphere as p/e ratios top 22 on the overall market.
So socionomics wins again, Investor optimism soars as though the crashes of 2000 and 2008 never happened, and forget real estate FNM FRE Lehman and such. Everything is just fine now, right?
Periods of reduced economic activity follow periods of expansion and so 1908=1929 was followed by 1930-1948. Now 1982 – 2000 is followed by 2000-2010, but hey we are only half way there time wise.
Too early to wade in the water of risk ……
I commented in class that the airlines were charging to check luggage. This of course means more people try to carry luggage on, thereby potentially increasing turn around time on the ground.
Now more folks are checking their bags via Fed EX or UPS.
I continue to believe this will finally boost video conferencing, reach out and touch someone as ATT used to say! Thanks but I will pass on the airport.
Thursday Jan 14, 2009
Jean Jennings, editor of Automobile, announced that Ford will overtake Toyota as the number two automaker. Well, what about the $25 B in debt Ford has?
We study earnings per share and potential dilution in Intermed II. This article points out that Ford has granted 362 million warrants which can be exercised at $9.20. The stock is two bucks above that which means the warrants or call options are in the money. That means the warrants can be exercised. That would instantly create more shares. That would dilute earnings on a fully diluted basis.
Mastering accounting makes the business news much easier to read and understand.
The Permian Basin of Texas consists of the 50 counties in far West Texas that produce about 20% of all the land based oil and gas in the US. We should be proud, not ashamed of this. Yet the fantasy of green jobs continues. I am all for wind energy, there are many large wind farms in West Texas now. But, the generators were designed elsewhere and frankly I can't see that it generates many jobs.
The idea that a car with two engines, gas and electric, coupled with a five hundred pound battery, is a green solution is rather laughable. The batteries are expensive and are an environmental problem for disposal.
IS there a future for electric cars, I don't know. I do know that battery technology is such that such vehicles do not offer an adequate range to be of much more value than the average golf cart.
For now, vehicles weighing less than 3,000 pounds using internal combustion engines of less than two liters makes the most sense. The Europeans are having great success with new diesel technology.
The WSJ suggests the word is out on the climate change hoax, particularly in Australia.
Yes we did have a drought and yes I think water conservation is so serious I introduced a case study on it in the advanced cost class. But the entire debate about energy conservation needs to embrace things we can do here and now not pie in the sky green jobs, for example.
Provide home owners tax credits for installing radiators on the roof that would ease the electric consumption of water heaters.
Extend the tax credit for installation of on demand or tank less water heaters.
Particularly in southern states, eliminate of downsize west facing windows.
If wind and solar energy are in vogue, drag out house plans from one hundred years ago, then homes had porches on all sides which shaded the windows.
Eliminate neckties, adopt the Mexican idea of the guybera shirt.
Allow smaller lighter simpler vehicles on urban streets. Governments routinely drive Kawasaki Mules and such around parks, playgrounds and yes university streets but citizens are forbidden to do this. The vehicles cannot be licensed for the street but of course it is fine for the government to do so. Give us the same opportunity. SUch vehicles are wildly popular off road on private property.
Okay this is a bit much but you get the idea, and gee wouldn't that enliven the trip to HEB?
This passage is self explanatory. Most of you are aware that I lived and worked in the oil fields of West Texas for many years. Safety is always a primary concern.
Bob Renkes of Petroleum Equipment Institute is working on a campaign to try and make people aware of fires as a result of 'static electricity' at gas pumps. His company has researched 150 cases of these fires.
His results were very surprising:
1) Out of 150 cases, almost all of them were women.
2) Almost all cases involved the person getting back in their vehicle while the nozzle was still pumping gas. When finished, they went back to pull the nozzle out and the fire started, as a result of static.
3) Most had on rubber-soled shoes.
4) Most men never get back in their vehicle until completely finished. This is why they are seldom involved in these types of fires.
5) Don't ever use cell phones when pumping gas.
6) It is the vapors that come out of the gas that cause the fire, when connected with static charges.
7) There were 29 fires where the vehicle was re-entered and the nozzle was touched during refueling from a variety of makes and models. Some resulted in extensive damage to the vehicle, to the station, and to the customer.
8) Seventeen fires occurred before, during or immediately after the gas cap was removed and before fueling began.
Mr. Renkes stresses to NEVER get back into your vehicle while filling it with gas.
If you absolutely HAVE to get in your vehicle while the gas is pumping, make sure you get out, close the door TOUCHING THE METAL, before you ever pull the nozzle out. This way the static from your body will be discharged before you ever remove the nozzle.
Wed Jan 13, 2009
Will on line movie rentals help spur e book downloads, I report you decide with this update.
Wed Jan 13 2010
Hmm, seems a study reveals that all that stimulus money has not resulted in any job creation. Yet the Administration claims it would have been worse with out it.
Okay class how about a little critical thinking here? The markets collapse, massive selling on Wall Street, house prices plunge, there is a call for the government to do 'something' possibly the start of a real calamity!
How can one tell whether the plan of action accomplished its objective? Well we cannot go back and re run the video tape of history without the stimulus, but we can total the job creation. The plan was passed without any outcome measures. As usual it was mostly pork barrel projects for Congressmen and women funning for re election back home. A better alternative to those hundreds of millions would have been to suspend witholding AND the tax rate. Bingo, instantly more money would be in every bank account in America. But of course that would have you rather than Washington DC deciding how to spend YOUR money so it did not happen.
Wed Jan 13, 2010
It is important to read a variety of opinions, reading writers outside the US is also important to obtain different points of view. Forbes magazine used to be the to business magazine. But in my opinion they are more a sort of Town and Country meets Vanity Fair at Wall Street. And they focus on publishing endless lists which I suppose have some curiosity but not much information value, ie, the Forbes 400.
But I do find Steve Forbes interesting, his latest thoughts on Iran, the new year the FED and Churchill here.