Right after the attacks, oil prices rose 4%. That’s it? Oil is still down almost 6% from its $93.68 Sept. 27 peak. All this with Saudi production cuts and 17 days left in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. An oil shock may still happen—oil prices rose from $3 in October 1973 to $12 in January 1974—but something else is amiss. Inflation might be cooling, but global energy demand is clearly no longer strong. Dreams of a soft landing for the economy may turn into nightmares of hard thumps.

The Federal Reserve cranked up short-term interest rates, now between 5.25% and 5.5%, to fight Bidenflation. But the carnage in the long end of the bond market is nasty. With yields going from 0.51% in August 2020 to 4.63% today, 10-year U.S. Treasury prices are down almost 23% from August 2020. This is the worst bond rout in U.S. history. Don’t be fooled by last week’s bond rally. Wars drive global capital to “safe” U.S. bonds.

Global bond losses are approaching $4 trillion since July. The biggest risk? Banks stuck with deteriorating bonds. At the end of June, there were $500 billion of unrealized bond losses at 289 U.S. banks. More than $100 billion of that may be at

. Yikes. In March, Silicon Valley Bank lost a measly $1.8 billion selling $21 billion in bonds, which caused a run and

’s implosion.

Then add commercial real-estate loans. About $500 billion a year needs to be refinanced at much higher interest rates. New 30-year home mortgages are dancing around 8%. Corporate bankruptcies are accelerating. China real estate feels like a black hole. Last week Sam Bankman-Fried’s lawyer asked former FTX chief techie Gary Wang, “Are you aware of the difference between solvency and liquidity?” Mr. Wang replied, “Now I am.” We may all be soon.

Still, the latest jobs report showed 336,000 new hires in September. The economy must be booming! Digging down finds that 116,000 of the jobs were added in leisure, hospitality and retail, the same folks our genius government paid not to work. Now it’s back to work. Another 73,000 government jobs were added—giving away green pork from the Inflation Reduction Act means more bureaucrats.

This isn’t good: Even with more government electric-vehicle credits, Tesla is cutting prices on Model 3s and Model Ys. This despite Trump tariffs on China (Mr. Biden kept them) that keep low-cost electric-vehicle maker BYD out of the U.S. market. Ford said it loses $32,000 for every electric car it sells. High labor costs are the culprit. Yet now Ford is negotiating with striking United Auto Workers, joined by Mr. Biden on the picket line, who want to raise labor costs by 40%.

Well, EVs aside, the rest of tech is fine, right? Uh, Apple smartphone unit sales have been dropping since 2020. Meta, much like venture capitalists erasing their crypto investing history, seems to be walking back its metaverse ambitions. Now it’s gung-ho on artificial intelligence, whose business model is still fluid.

charges $10 a month for an AI assistant for programmers. The Journal reports it may be losing $20 a month on each subscription. The Ford business model? Speaking of losses, the once hotter-than-hot Bored Ape Yacht Club nonfungible tokens—last year Justin Bieber paid $1.3 million for one—are selling for pennies on the dollar.

There’s the snapshot. Not pretty. Is bad news priced in? Maybe it’s me, but it sure feels as if there’s still a lot of complacency in the market despite an inverted yield curve and expectations for the economy to land on a feather pillow. Stocks are down only 5.6% from their August peak vs. the shellacking for bonds. Something’s got to give. When bond yields rise, stocks become less attractive. With 10-year Treasury yields at 4.63%, sitting around clipping coupons is now a viable investment strategy. The Fed may eventually cut short-term rates, but stocks may not like the potential reason, especially if it’s a recession and earnings blowups.

Markets sell off all the time. Maybe we’re done, maybe it’s just beginning. No one rings a bell at the top or bottom of the market. Wars are unpredictable. Be ready, but don’t look backward. Treacherous markets are when you should get out your butterfly net for the next decade’s winners.

Write to kessler@wsj.com.