• Professor Elam

    The WSJ sums up the next big battle in this article. The Copnehagen meeting is all about getting the well to do countries to send money to the not so well to do, read backwater socialist dominated dictatorships. China nd India, the big polluters, want no part of this. And so our President is apparently prepare to promise more US Aid.

    Thi is all about government control. Industry is warning that domestic refineries may be shut down in preference to importing gasoline, that won't be cheap. This has big meaning for petroleum exporters like Russia, the mid East and Texas.

    by the way, we inhale oxygen and exhale carbond dioxide. Plants use carbon dioxide to manufacture oxygen.

    And wouldn't you know it, here is an article on the Texas Energy Industry in the latest fiscal notes from the State of Texas. Tobacco made Texas 75% as much as oil production last month.

  • Professor Elam

    This reviewer raves about the 27" MAC desktop computer, the most gorgeous desktop computer he has ever touched. Even the Apple packing  boxes have great design he says. this underscores the importance of Design in marketing a successful product. 

    I have advocated building an MBA program around he concept of Design. Good designs not only improve function but make us want to use the product. Read Don Norman's The Design of Everyday Things to get some ideas. 

    The reviewer goes on to make the point that Apple is not interested in the low end of the market. This is where Acer, Dell, HP all slug it out for thin margins, the latest model soon to appear at Sams and WMT. 

    There are no Dell or Accer computer people, but there are Apple devotees. And they are willing to pay a premium price for the product, check Apple stock versus the others. Business Week has an issue on Design every quarter. Designers are the new rock stars. 

  • Professor Elam

    A sign of a top in valuations is investor frustration with low yields. Indeed, bonds are less than 4%, Tsys anyway, and the banks, well you will spend more on gas than you will make on the depost.

    Here are some preferreds from this weekend's Barrons article

    Bankof America 8.8% see my earlier post on B of A and Merrill's bull, by the way there is a full page ad on page 8 of the current Barrons with the Merrill Bull prominently displayed, The pitch is for private wealth management, but I doubt one gets John Thain as an adviser….

    CITI I 9.5%

    Barclays 8.6%

    Wells Fargo 8.2%

    AIG 13.1% which is rated by the way BBB

    Does anyone see anything wrong here? I don't recall what happened to Barclays but teh others in the list have  their share of problems, like single digit valuyations for some of their common shares. Indeed in the same issue Alan Abelson notes an analyst suggesting Bank of America is at least a half year early on re paying the TARP money, why not wait to see how those loans pan out?
    EEP Enbridge Energy is suggested at 49 with a 8% yield, good but at 25 in March the yield was 16% and now EEP has doubled.

    Chasing yield is never a good idea. Utility stocks moved up today and this aricle was cited as a reason. Nothing wrong with utilities, I doubt the lights will go out, but seems to me that everyone was worried sick about many of these same companies just months ago.

  • Professor Elam

    From Prof Judy Lewis

     Audit I is now being offered at 5:30 on Mondays for the spring semester 2010 as a hybrid course.  I only have 6 students enrolled so far, and want to make sure that the course makes.  Since it wasn't in the original schedule, I am thinking some students may not realize we have made the change.

  • Professor Elam

    Monday Dec 7 2009

    Five days ago Dec  2 we showed the deteriorating breadth, fewer and fewer stocks participating in the rally, we suggested then that the fally was long in tooth and that lower prices lay ahead. 

    Well that was clear and now those short the Dollar to buy leveraged assets elsewhere, like gold, oil, and stocks, are buying the Dollar this morning and selling positions. 

    The news however wants to link a possible FED tightenting to this. The markets will always go where they want and the news will always try to link an event with market action. There is no necessary correlation. For months various pundits have warned of hyper inflation. This will come but not yet. When the government starts throwing trillions from helicoptors into the economy, it will finally show up as inflation. But in the mean time the deflation has to end first. Dubai and City Center remind us of too much debt against over valued property. And speaking of news

    Dubai World 'may' sell assets.

    Note in this article how the government of Dubai seeks to distance itself from the debtor it created Dubai World. Success has a thousand parents, failure is ever the orphan as the saying goes. First of course Dubai would have to find a buyer, rather like Ford seeking the elusive buyer for Volvo, GM seeking the buyer for Saab, all the REITS seeking buyers for their over priced properties….Deflation first. 

  • Professor Elam

    Monday Dec 7, 2009

    Pearl Harbor Anniversary Day

    Sorry I just couldn't resist the double meaning!  Merrill officials got Bank of America to agree to all the Merrill Bull symbol back on their business cards. It has been used since 1974. One recalls that 1974 as the bottom of the bear in terms of absolute Dow at 577 in Dec of 1974. It would not recover until after 1982 however. 

    This is the same Merrill that had to sell it self to BoA last year to stay afloat. This is the same deal that CEO Ken Lewis said he was forced into by the FED, his reward, getting fired later at B of A. This is the same Merrill that had John Thain as President who spent $1 M re doing his bath room. This is the same John Thain that decided he deserved a $10 M bonus for selling Merrill to B of A a couple of hours before Lehman went bust. I have to admit he is probably right about that, the deal would not have happened once Lehman made it plain what a house of cards the brokers had become. This is the same Merrill that had Thain fired as it was discovered he lavished bonuses just before the deal went thru. 

    And now they are bullish on America. Is this  great country or what?  This is why there are petitions to keep Bernake from being re appointed. The TARP money has been lavished on the banks to keep them in business after making every wrong decision they could make. U 6 unemployment is now 17%, one in six Americans does not have a job. But John Thain left Merrill with millions in the bank……the job of hte FED is to preserve the banks and this they have done. 

    Socionomic Irony Now that the Dow has rallied 4,000+ points, Merrill is making a big deal about the bull on the business card. The time to be bullish of course was at the maximum fear inflection point, March 10. If you check no one was handing out bullish business cards at Merrill that day but that was the day to buy, a fact that did not escape Goldman who did just that with their TARP money. Correction, that would be OUR TARP money that Goldman used to make bonuses for them so they could then repay us our loan and keep their gains, okay got it now…..

  • Professor Elam

    P1010005Sunday Dec 6 2009

    Crescenio Davilla  and Jamie Rapp are selling the new t shirts and caps for student government. 

  • Professor Elam

    Picture 8

    Gold dropped about $54 in Friday trading, more than that intra day. What would be a reasonable support level for this the only bull market around?  

    • Fibonacci re tracements suggest $1,000 as a first level. 
    • The last breakout was above $1,000, it failed twice and took a full two years to get over the $1,000 hump.
    • MACD is seriously overbought on this weekly chart.
    • Even the 50 week MA is below $1,000. 

    Therefore $1,000 as the old top and resistance level should be proven to be the new bottom or support level. At least that is what the technicals suggest. 

     

  • Professor Elam

    Saturday Dec 5 2009

    Picture 5

    Yes that's Tiger Woods looking into the abyss with the tag line

    It's What you Do Next That Counts…

    Tiger has been the well paid avatar for Accenture Consulting, a spin off of Arthur Andersen before it imploded. 

    We will be discussing social media and behavior in Ethics the spring semester. As I have said in the previous three semesters teaching this class, I never have to look far or go back to find new material…

    Picture 6
     

     

  • Professor Elam

    Picture 2 At left on Friday the dollar in center rallied. This reflects the practice of borrowing dollars at zero interest cost courtesy of Mr. Bernake. Then take the money and speculate on oil at top or gold at bottom. One can see that both those were sold to finance covering or buying back the dollar short. One shorts the dollar by borrowing at zero interest rates. One is betting he or she can buy the dollars back for less than the borrowed cost, and indeed so far, the traders exiting friday did just that. The ones this next week may not be so lucky.  We have been studying derivatives in class, hopefully this real world example makes the case why this topic is so important to understand. 

    Steve Kaplan, http://www.truecontrarian.com explains this next. 

    For the past several trading days, the U.S. dollar index has been forming a bullish pattern of higher lows, and currently (75.8) stands above its low (74.940) of October 21, 2009. This indicates that a small number of hedge funds or others have concluded that the recent downtrend in the greenback has probably ended, and are therefore positioning themselves for a reversal. As this reversal has intensified, those who were borrowing U.S. dollars have been forced to begin to pay back some of their loans. Since nearly all of these carry-trade participants are using margin–in some cases, incredibly thin margin–in order to raise the cash necessary to repay their U.S. dollar debts, they have been forced to sell their other assets. This is primarily why the price of gold suddenly plummeted today, as speculators have had to scramble to repay their U.S. dollar borrowings. Later in the day, the price of crude oil also reversed lower, as carry-trade participants decided they didn't want to sell gold so far below its recent peak, and decided to go after crude as an alternative. Sooner or later, they'll be selling their emerging-market equities, and eventually closing out most of their positions either to meet margin calls or else to lock in whatever profits still remain before it's too late. Since everyone will be rushing to unwind the carry trade ahead of everyone else, there will be a cascade of unloading positions. It will not likely happen immediately, but eventually this will result in a massive rally for the U.S. dollar and gains for U.S. Treasuries, along with a plunge for gold, crude oil, and emerging-market largecaps.