• Professor Elam

    Times change but the behavior of people does
    not. Vivid parallels exist  between
    the behavior of people in this time period and in previous  periods that reflect the same social
    mood. The periods of 1920-29, 1954-1966, and 1982-2000 were expansionary and
    creative. Wealth was created and the mood was upbeat. But such expansion led to
    abuses of the financial system. 
    After each period the reaction was the same, financial markets crashed,
    and the US entered a period of stagnation. Governments clamped down on the
    ‘cows once they were out of the barn’ so to speak. For example the Securities
    Acts of 1933 and 1934 were passed when no one was interested in securities,
    indeed the Dow had dropped 90%. 
    And so the periods of 1930-1941, 1966-1982, and 2000-probably 2014 will
    be periods of lesser economic activity. The moods of the public will be
    remarkably the same however for these three periods.

    Fred
    Astaire
    and Ginger Rogers made a string of
    famous movies in the 1930s. Flying Down
    to Rio
    in 1933 set the pace with an exotic location; note it appeared after
    the very bottom of the eventual stock market crash in 1931-32. The movies
    featured elaborate dance scenes amid opulent splendor of sets and costumes. The
    same thing is being re created again on Dancing
    with the Stars
    , a popular television program. For a modest admission price
    in the Thirties, one could enter another world of the movie theater and leave
    the Depression. In this way Hollywood offers an escape from the front page bad
    news on the economy.

    But the predominant theme of these periods is
    dissatisfaction leading to anger. This resulted in ‘protest’ songs and social
    movements in all three periods.

    Woody Guthrie’ songs were about his experiences in the Dust Bowl era during the Great Depression,
    earning him the nickname the "Dust Bowl Troubadour". His son Arlo
    Guthrie rose to fame in the next stagnation era post 1966 beginning with Alice’s Restaurant, a long parody on law
    enforcement at the time. Peter, Paul, and Mary observed that the answers to
    such questions were ‘Blowin’ in the Wind.
    The centerpiece was of course the famous I
    Have a Dream Speech
    by Martin Luther King delivered to a crowd at the
    Lincoln Memorial. That set the stage for various protests since. The Tea Party
    Movement, just now beginning, has already visited Washington, DC.

     

    Such protests can become violent. One of Douglas MacArthur's most
    controversial acts came in 1932, when President Hoover ordered him to
    disperse the "Bonus Army"
    of veterans who had converged on the capital in protest of government policy.
    MacArthur was criticized for using excessive force to disperse the protesters,
    an act during which US troops killed several veterans. One can see the same
    sort of activity with ACORN and unions today.  A similar incident resulted in student deaths at Kent State
    University in the late 1960s.

    Viet Nam War Protestors sought to disrupt the Democrat
    Convention in Chicago. They succeeded. 
    Dubbed the Chicago Seven, they were put on trial the following year for
    inciting a riot. The trial became a cause celeb for the New Left as the
    defendants succeeded in disrupting the trial as they did the Convention. They
    were found not guilty. This trial is surely the antecedent for the proposal to
    try various 9/11 terrorists in New York City. The precedent is that such trials
    do not have certain outcomes.

    The ultimate act of violence is war. The greatest war
    ever, WW II,  began in Europe in
    the 1930s.  The Viet Nam conflict
    drug on through multiple administrations.  Now Iraq and Afghanistan offer a similar lack of resolution
    which is confounding multiple administrations. The stagflation of Lyndon
    Johnson and Gerald Ford has resurfaced as the nation hemorrhages money in war
    and social spending while unemployment grows.

    Expect more not less government social engineering. Social
    Security began in the 1930s. George McGovern hatched the idea of a guaranteed
    income of $6,000 for everyone in his 1972 Presidential campaign. That idea
    marches on in the form of guaranteed ‘living wages’ via a government mandated
    minimum wage. The government is now bent on a ‘universal health insurance
    plan.’

    Do not wonder at the social ‘changes’ developing now, they
    have all happened before in periods of similar social mood. 

  • Professor Elam

    Debt-ridden MGM could be sold

    12 November 2009 4:52 AM, PST | The Guardian – Film News | See recent The Guardian – Film News news »

    The studio with the famous lion logo and library of James Bond films appears to be headed for the auction block to recoup some $3.7bn in debt

    The MGM lion, a star of cinema since the 1920s, may be looking for a new home amid rumours that the studio is to be sold off in the Hollywood equivalent of a fire sale. Reportedly saddled with debts totalling $3.7bn (£2.2bn), the company looks likely to sell its MGM andUnited Artists libraries to the highest bidder in the next few weeks.

    Variety suggests that the studio's film archive, which includes the lucrative James Bond adventures, may be snapped up by a major company such as Time-Warner. The famous logo featuring Leo the lion could well be auctioned off separately. Either way, it appears that the heyday of Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer is officially over.

    Founded in 1924, MGM operated under the motto "Ars Gratia Artis »

    – Xan Brooks

    from http://www.imdb.com

  • Professor Elam

    These are just too good. Photographs from readers in http://adventure.nationalgeographic.com/2008/08/reader-photo-contest-photography

    Note how the single person perched on the rock gives perspective for the entire vastness the photographer wants to emphasize. 

    Picture 2

  • Professor Elam

    Inspiration is where you find it. In the advanced cost class, students will be presenting alternate case studies of Mocha Java, start a neighborhood coffee shop, and Cactus Flower, start a xeri scaping service to conserve water. In one of the 3314 classes, we are doing Blanco Cafe. In hopes of generating more enthusiasm and ideas, I will be posting some interesting links on the blog. 

    Picture 1 Okay, I found this idea in National Geographic Adventure. How to Survive Anything outlines eight doomsday scenarios, this one involves drought in the west

    There are specific ideas about how to survive a drought and gather more water, but you will have to read the link to learn them. What other ideas does the article offer that might be included in your landscaping service?

    The Road is a new movie about two characters surviving an apocalyptic event. We are not told what the event is. Would the neighborhood coffee shop figure in such an event, a gathering place perhaps?

  • Professor Elam

    Dell has slipped to number three in PC makers. 

  • Professor Elam

    Tim Geithner actually well apparently opposes the proposed tax on every wall street transaction. Dems have now dreamed up the idea of taxing every buy and sell on wall street. This of course would immediately drive all transactions elsewhere, out of the country. This of course is not popular in NYC or with former Wall Streeter Geithner. I am personally glad to know there is some tax idea that someone in the administration actually opposes. 

  • Professor Elam

    Read The Naked Swindle in the Rolling Stone. Someone bought $1.7 M worth of puts on Bear Stearns when the stock was $63, with strike prices 50%  lower and only nine days left for expiration. And they paid off 159x. Gee do you think that person had inside information?  And the SEC cannot find out who that was?

    Here is Too Big To Fail, the Story of what it took to keep Goldman and Morgan Stanley in business.

    Once the markets turn lower again, the public will be genuinely outraged at such shenanigans, Wall Street getting rich while Middle America gets pink slips.

  • Professor Elam

    Lilly Tomlin created Ernestine the unscrupulous telephone operator. Here is a link to her first introduction of the character on Laugh In in the 1965. Please appreciate that in 1965 ATT had a virtual monopoly on phone serice in the US, their attitude is the subject of this parody. As she says TPC The Phone Company is  not subject to regulation they are omnipotent. And I am NOT happy.

    The character endured, here is Ernestine talking with Cher. Sony and Cher wer quite successful in the 1970s and ahd their own tv show.  The implication that the Phone Company knows all about you and wil readily distort the truth  is clear.

    ATT disconnected my e mail at dennis.elam@att.net, I ccannot access or use it at this point. Their reason was that I moved my home telephone number from Dallas to San Antonio. The phone number changed two months ago, the e mail got disconnected while I slept last night. I am to say the least not happy. OH I said that already….

    So please use the school e mail to contact me. that is dennis.elam@tamuk.edu.

  • Professor Elam

    I just got an e mail on this, I was unaware of it or of course I would have put it on the blog here.

    At any rate, the link is here, I urge accounting students to apply Here is a great example of the importance of an elevator pitch for yourself!

    For Immediate Release

    Date: October 21, 2009 Contact:

    Nora Valdez, Marketing Director

    (210) 384-8000 ext. 129

    nav@ssacpa.com

    Sol Schwartz & Associates, P.C. offers $25,000 in scholarship awards

    Sol Schwartz & Associates, P.C. will present the 4

    th annual $2,500 scholarship award to an

    outstanding accounting college student in the San Antonio area. Established four years ago

    in honor of their 25th anniversary, Sol Schwartz & Associates will continue to offer $25,000 in

    scholarships over the course of 10 years. The scholarship recognizes an outstanding student

    for academic achievement, economic need and leadership initiative. “The Sol Schwartz &

    Associates Accounting Scholarship Award supports our firm’s proud tradition of community

    involvement, with a strong emphasis on education,” said managing shareholder Jeff Albrecht.

    Requirements:

    Junior or senior

    Accounting major

    Deadline for application is Friday, November 20, 2009

    Recipient will be notified no later than Friday, December 11, 2009

    One recipient will receive $1,250 per semester for a total of $2,500 for one school year

    (either Fall & Spring 2009-2010 or Spring & Summer 2010).

    Proof of registration required

    Visit http://www.ssacpa.com for application

    Sol


  • Professor Elam

    Pundits are wondering just how long the FED will stay at zero interest rates. We are starting to see articles that printing this many dollars will eventually result in some inflation. 

    Other FED pundits, weak dollar, who cares say others. 

    One analyst points out that asset prices will continue to rise as long as interest rates are set to zero in this country. The FED wants asset inflation so bingo the stock market is up.

    Bottom line is this-the weak dollar supposedly bolsters our exports by making them cheaper. But as noted in a previous post, the Chinese are attempting to do the same thing by keeping their yuan cheap. As we have noted commercial real estate is weaker all the time, and regional bank stocks are weakening as we noted earlier this week. All these trillions of dollars of stimulus have ended up in the stock market where those bucks are clearly not creating any jobs, hence unemployment continues to climb. Eventually inflation, probably this spring, will surface. Then we will no doubt face a 1970s stagflation of higher inflation and continued unemployment.  I suspect that will hit just in time for the November 2010 elections.