The Crisis Explained – Really

  Professor Wayne coleman receives his award for research as  a PhD Professor. The annual ceremony, Doctoral Achievement Awards,  was sponsored by the San Antonio Westside chamber of Commerce. S A A & M was out in force for the october 30, 2008 ceremony held at the Menger Hotel.

 

Our group gathers in the foyer prior to the ceremony. From left, Dr. Carol;yn Green and Husband, Tracy Hurley and husband, Dr. Gary Coulton, Div Head A & S, and Laura Pantano. Studetn Affairs Director.

Veronica Onate, Isabel Amesquita, and Yovela Rico along with yours truly attended an informative meeting Friday November 7, 2008 -  Everything You Wanted to Know about Becoming a CPA. A four member panel featured CPAs with various backgrounds. Ed Polansky, past President of Texas CPAs, was present, bringing 40 years of insight about the profession. Lisa Mattson, Division Director for Robert Half, made the point that CPA is the hallmark designation of the accoutning profession.

Our school was as well represented as any.  Oddly my experience is that the large schools are not supportive of such events. You mght have though our trio would be dwarfed by the UTSA students, hardly, there were about sixteen total students in attendance.  I noted the same thing several years ago at a reginal Beta Alpha Psi contest for accounting students. A & M College Station and UT Austion were not to be  found, fearful no doubt of being shown up by  a smaller school.

so you never know, I met up with friends ffrom being here previously that I asked to come to campus and speak to our students. Networking, what this game is all about.

Ed Polansky will speak at the Friday night meeting at SA CPA. Click the hyperlinks for more information.

Ed is a former President of the Texas Society so he is certainly well connected and in a position to see where this profession is going. We urge you to take advantage of this opportunity

Free pizza

Free info

Great networking

About as good as it gets

Dress i s business casual and be sure to have a business card!

RSVP to info@sacpasociety.com, (210)828-2722 or toll free (888)828-8680.

San Antonio has the lowest four year tuition in San  Antonio, good thing. College across the nation continue to act as though demand for their product is totally inelastic.  That is no matter the price, consumers will pay it. I wonder.

The cost of college has escalated  faster than the salary has risen from obtaining that college degree.

 in the 1930s SMU cut professor salaries 20% one year than another 50% two years later. State economies are going to be pressed, sales taxes will be lower and property taxes will be a lot lower. In Texas falling oil prices mean lower severance tax revenues.

A lot of this is illusory. When students sign  a note they are not really seeing the final cost of the product, until they graduate that is. I suspect this is yet another perfect storm on the horizon.  College budgets are expanding but the revenue sources and tax base are declining, tough times ahead for state and private universities i think. The pace of construction at large schools is simply asounding, take a stroll acroos any large campus to see what I mean. When wil luniversities get the same message Toyota and GM are receiving today?

Son of famed economist Herb Stein, Ben writes on the markets and established himself as the droll school person in Ferris Bueller's Day Off. He has appeared in numerous tv ads and several movies.

He reflects on losing money in this article. He asserts that one should be more of a favorite stock if it gets to one fourth of where you bought it before. The problem with such analysis is that is ignores where we are in the big picture.  In 1987 we had  correction, but in an ongoing bulll market. In 1929 and 1966, we were at the end of big bull runs. It would take until the early 1950s b before RCA, the tech darling of the 1920s regained its price it traded in 1929.  The Dow high of 1,000 in 1966 would not be really broken until the early 1980s. so Ben may be waiting a long time.

Now we are arguably at the end of the boom that started in the 1920s, if you see the 1900s as one long bull market interrupted by 1929-1952 and 1966-1982. If that is the case it is truly a New World.

I suspect this may not all resolve for some number of years. Power is clearly shifting. it is true that the US cannot go on consuming 25% of world energy with only 5% of its population, the world is not going to lend us the money to do that. Our markers are being called in, how long will the world accept our IOUs?  I frankly doubt either McCain or Obama understand that given their naive pronouncements during the campaign, and I don't know that their advisers are a lot better.

The world is weary of the US, China, India, and Russia not to mention the always down trodden economies of South America want their day in the sun. We are going through that transition process now. Who will emerge the big winner?  The country that produces goods and services the world wants. It will have a strong currency backed by that productivity of desirable goods. It will not have debt it cannot handle. At the moment that would not be the US with too much debt and an economy based on selling ring tones on cell phones….

Toyota stock dropped 10% in Japan as it announced lower forecasts.  All models are affected particularly luxury  Lexus and of course our  own Tundra pickup to be made in San Antonio. As you read the article note how surprised Toyota is at all this.  Clearly their analysts failed to see the slowdown coming.

Last night in the cost class we discussed budgets.  I mentioned that the budget depends completely on projections. If the projections change it throws everything off.  Now imagine how these large manufacturing companies are pressed to cut back production with too many vehicles on the lots, ie, inventory turnover has ground to a halt.

Offering incentives will be of little help as those never really went away.  So more layoffs are ahead.

I look for the new Congress to rescue GM, if we can rescue AIG that enriched themselves, at least GM and Ford have not done that, and it would be a lot less money. Jerry Flint comments.

China is more predicated on selling to the west than perhaps gearing up to solve its own problems, the showcase of the Olympics being a good case in point, how many jobs will those stadiums create now?

Click to read the story.

Auto sales in October fell to the lowest per capita levels since after the end of WW II. It was understandable then, there were not any cars to buy, this is hardly the case now.BMW has shelved its prediction to start all over, read the link to see how companies are reacting.

The stock market is an early warning indicator.  Retail and auto sales are collapsing, consumers are pulling back. Interesting, the airline index is up, how did that happen, check out XAL.

In six months prepare yourselve to see a new American landscape.  There will nto be Help Wanted signs posted routinely.  People will actually be out of work, not just looking for work. It will not matter who is elected today, some massive readjustments are coming.