How Does This End?
A dilemma is a situation in which all possible outcomes have negative consequences. This seems to be the case for the Ukraine Invasion by Russia.
Given the weak response to his fierce actions in Syria, Georgia, Crimea, and various assassination attempts or successes, Putin thought this would be an easy stroll into Ukraine.
Clearly he was ill advised on the determination of Ukraine to fight and the West to supply better late than never weaponry. And he is surely disappointed in the ability of his reformed military to conquer a lesser force.
Worse Mr Putin is a bad loser more likely to double down in shelling civilians than to withdraw to Russia.
Sanctions have never slowed the Castros in Cuba nor Chavez/Maduro in Venezuela. Thinking this would be a one week adventure, it is doubtful that Russia acquired enough food or fuel or spare parts for re-supply to such a large force. And assured there will not be a no fly zone nor actual Western Involvement, Putin is likely to continue the siege mentality of soon depriving the Ukraine of food, water, and electricity.
It may be that Russia itself is already facing a supply shortage, hence the long range attacks on cities. But if this continues, Ukraine will surely also be out of resources to support a population in a week or so.
A further dilemma is that sanctions on Putin are sanctions on the Russian People. A collapse in the ruble and cut off from the world money exchanges is not likely to bring a Russian citizen around to the West point of view. Finding a way to make friends of the Russian citizen would be preferable
World War II was the result of a series of incidents stretching from the 1931 Japanese invasion of China to the German occupation of the the Sudeten and then Poland and finally Pearl Harbor.
Could things spin out of control again? One Russian politician this past week suggested sending a nuclear warhead on an ICBM to the US weapons test area in Nevada. He even predicted US deaths of no more than 10,000. Russian military strategy allows for smaller battlefield nuclear weapons.
Last week I expressed doubt that NATO would actually rush to the rescue of one of the small Baltic States like Latvia and I suspect Mr Putin sees it that way as well. It is doubtful that Mr. Putin would settle for Ukraine staying out of NATO and returning home.
President Biden is at his worst with off the cuff comments. Calling Mr. Putin a war criminal may be accurate but won't lead to peace discussions. And if all he does is utter such comments with no further commitment it will only enrage and empower Putin to continue.
Whether the West will stage another Berlin type airlift, daring Russia to shoot them down may soon be an issue on the table.
Crude oil prices doubled from December's $65 to the recent peak at $130. As noted in this space energy is a risky trade given its prior retreat from such high prices in 2008 and 2014. Price dropped to $95 and is bouncing today just over $100. It would take a weekly close under $95 to expect lower prices any time soon.
The war in the Ukraine has sobered some in the climate crowd to re-consder excepting of course our President. Energy independence is critical as Team Biden fgoes begging to the Saudis or Iran or Venezuela. Loss of energy independence is one of the worst one year outcomes of this administration.
Stock prices are likely to rise into mid-April as the February lows held.
Professor Elam 