• Professor Elam

    Tuesday Dec 21, 2021

    A former stockbroker who served time for securities fraud has started White Colllar Advice.com

    The USA is a small percent of the world population but we have  25 % of the world's prison inmates, thank you War on Drugs.

    Interesting that there is a market for prison advice.

     

  • Professor Elam

    Friday Dec 17 2021

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  • Professor Elam

    Weekend Dec 11 2021

    This space recently covered scams by both NFL and NBA players via the Paycheck Protection Program.  Joshua B ellamy a former Chicago CXXears player

    was among 11 people charged in a  $17 M  + fraud scheme. He is sentenced to 337 months in Federal Prison.

  • Professor Elam

    Monday Dec 6 2021
     
    Andy Kessler's column runs on Mondays in the WSJ. He is a relatively recent addition and always interesting.
     
    Today he notices ho since Daniel Craig became Bond the stories re increasingly dark or as he puts it , no fun.
     
    I copied the column from our library in case you do not have the WSJ,.  But this seems to  fit right into the EWI call for a top in November in the markets.  In articular notice the net to last paragraph, Hollywood does not want us to be happy.
     
    Dennis
     

    Bond films delivered a feeling of sophistication and fun. The original James Bond was suave and sassy while he resolved sinister plots. He exemplified cool: He drank vodka martinis but never to excess, was impeccably dressed and, though flirty, was a gentleman. The early films were filled with innuendo and scenes that were simultaneously exotic and a touch campy. Sean Connery's Bond had a joie de vivre. Roger Moore's was less serious and a little over the top, but the audience was in on the joke.

    Scholars love to analyze Bond creator and author Ian Fleming's work as an allegory: Bond is the new Churchill, saving the British Empire from its inevitable postwar decline. Bond's motivation in Her Majesty's Secret Service is always God and country, epitomized in the opening scene of "The Spy Who Loved Me" when he skis off a cliff and unfurls a parachute emblazoned with the Union Jack.

    But since Daniel Craig took over in 2006, things have turned strange, especially with his final Bond film, "No Time to Die," which I recently watched. It was dark and gloomy like 2012's "Skyfall." Billie Eilish practically whispers the theme song, seemingly from a shrink's couch. Bond was brooding, with a constant scowl on his face. What was he so depressed about, Brexit? No wonder Mr. Craig reportedly couldn't wait to finish his run as 007.

    What the heck is going on? After paying for $15 movie tickets plus overpriced and overbuttered popcorn, I expect to escape the drudgery of real life for a couple of hours. I want to come out of a dark theater with a huge smile on my face, not feeling as if I got hit by a sad sack of potatoes.

    Why does Hollywood sulk so much these days? Is it simply reflecting society? This moody movement certainly ruined "Star Wars" and Batman — "Dark Knight" indeed — and even enjoyable Marvel characters like Iron Man's Tony Stark, who started out snarky and ended up despondent. Gloomy dreck like "Parasite" and "Nomadland" now win the Oscar for Best Picture. Anything good, like Joaquin Phoenix's performance in "The Joker," gets shouted down as insensitive.

    Man, I miss the days when you knew who the enemy was. Auric Goldfinger and his behatted crony Oddjob, Ernest Stavro Blofeld stroking his white cat, Jaws, Emilio Largo and his eyepatch and of course the Soviets. Bond girls, though enticing and with racy names, were usually sophisticated, worldly and wicked smart. They have been of diverse race and nationality since the 1960s. Equity! Yes, James Bond was a womanizer — maybe that's part of the British ideal — but he was unmarried, and he was never a misogynist.

    Plus, you could count on Bond films to have otherworldly plots — rob Fort Knox, steal atomic bombs, wipe out the human race from a hidden space station, and, my favorite, blow up Silicon Valley to corner the market on chips (the Japanese later tried this unsuccessfully). But in the Craig era, the plots turned inward. "Skyfall" delves into Bond's childhood, and he destroys his ancestral home by blowing up propane tanks. Paging Dr. Freud. "Quantum of Solace" from 2008 involves a Bolivian water shortage. C'mon, these are fantasy films, not therapy or ecological case studies.

    I especially look forward to seeing the advanced high-tech gadgets and weapons that Q provides 007. Talk about a letdown. In "No Time to Die," Bond uses a Nokia phone and goes off-roading in a Toyota. Ho-hum.

    Early Bond films were made before computer graphics. They required clever filming, amazing sets, huge casts and daring stunts. These days, with hundreds of movies using special effects, most major cities have been blown up, and every car chase imaginable has been done. Special effects in movies are great, but they have become soulless, which perhaps leads to the inevitable gloom and doom.

    This is the new-millennium malaise. Hollywood doesn't want us to be happy. Sad audiences are easier to manipulate. Sure, the James Bond of the 1960s and '70s needed to be modernized. But can modern Hollywood still balance fun and sophistication? I doubt it. Amazon is set to buy Bond franchise owner MGM, and I fear that a new 10-part Prime series on 007 fighting climate change and methane-belching cattle may be coming.

    Don't get me wrong, I enjoyed "No Time to Die," but left disappointed. The only thing that Bond's film producers seem to have a license to kill is fun. Actually, fun may already have died. I'm shaken, not stirred, by this.

    Credit: By Andy Kessler

    Word count: 812
     
  • Professor Elam

    Friday Dec 3 2021

     

  • Professor Elam

    Weekend Nov 27 2021

    Farrell Rule #9

    1. When all the experts and forecasts agree – something else is going to happen.

    Translation: This rule fits with Farrell's contrarian streak. When all analysts have a buy rating on a stock, there is only one way left to go (downgrade). Excessive bullish sentiment from newsletter writers and analysts should be viewed as a warning sign. Investors should consider buying when stocks are unloved and the news is all bad. Conversely, investors should consider selling when stocks are the talk of the town and the news is all good. Such a contrarian investment strategy usually rewards patient investors.

    I originally wrote this column Tuesday focusing on inflation. Friday, today, was a shortened trading day closing at noon CST. This is the typical Friday after Thanksgiving and usually consists of low volume and little movement. That was not the case today.

    The Goldman Sachs Commodity Index declined 6.65%, today.

    Crude Oil declined $10.24 or 13.06%, today. This reminds me of 2008 when crude soared to $140 and then collapsed to $35 by Christmas.

    The Dow declined 905.04 points or 2.53%. Small caps lead so the Russell 2000 dropped 3.67%. the DJIA and S & P made new highs in November but have dramatically reversed.

    while the media blames this on increased Covid, the truth is that the markets have completed a five wave pattern dating back to the lows of 1931. It is highly unusual for such a reversal to occur on what should have been a minor day but here it is.

    See https://professorelam.typepad.com/markets/ ofr charts and more commentary this weekend. My opinion is that this is NOT a buy the dip opportunity. We have detailed the warning signs for months via lack of breadth, focus on electric car and a handful of FANG stocks, wild optimism for meme stocks which are not earning any money, and the crazy crypto fad. Add in the mania for art and real estate and we have a market mania top at hand.

  • Professor Elam

    Tuesday Nov 23, 2021

    this firm sells firearm accessories and modifications. Interestingly the firm decided to eliminate Black Friday discounts due to the complaints of timing. All I can say is good for you. As he states we have no desire to be a discount company.

    This is very much in the spirit of Deming's Total Quality Management

     

    Dennis Elam

     

    Our Perspective On Black Friday Deals

    First, it was Black Friday. Then they added Cyber Monday. And now if you're anything like me, your email inbox has been filling up with "Black Friday" discounts and promotions since well back into October. It seems to no longer be reserved for the day after Thanksgiving, but has now become standard operating procedure for deals to run all the way through Christmas. It's almost a guessing game of when to buy, hoping you don't miss out on an even more significant discount.

    As much as I hate to admit it, we've felt obligated to offer a similar sale over the last few years. Initially only offering a discount on Friday but then extending that out from Wednesday through Monday and then field calls and emails asking for concessions on orders placed just before or just after the promotional period.

    As a company that doesn't view itself as discount-driven, this never felt right. In a way, it almost felt like those customers that placed their orders for the holidays early were almost being "penalized" for doing so.

    Did these promotions drive sales? Absolutely, they did. However, we want to be about more than just one sale to a customer. For this reason, we will no longer be offering a "Black Friday" promotion of any kind.

    I am sure this will disappoint those that hold out for a discount, and we can respect that. Ultimately we feel that our customers would prefer a premium product more than a discounted one.

    There's a sense of pride in manufacturing our products, and once that word "discount" or "sale" enters the conversation, it can adversely affect our end goal.

    As a sidebar to this, if you see discount coupons or codes being offered on other sites for our website, please know that these are fraudulent. The only discounts our company provides is to our active and retired military and law enforcement members as well as products currently listed on our Clearance page. We also offer year-round free shipping on all orders of $200 or more.

    Committed to Building it Better,
    Scott Volquartsen
    Volquartsen Logo Twitter Facebook Instagram
    This email was sent to dennis.elam@att.net
  • Professor Elam

    Tuesday Nov 23, 2021

    Screen Shot 2021-11-23 at 7.39.37 AM

     

     

     
    Black Friday offers available 11/22/21 through 11/28/21 11:59pm ET. Does not apply to prior purchases. Upgrades available at discount. Contact us for more info!
     
     
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  • Professor Elam

    Friday Nov 19, 2021

    Lack of Breadth in Markets

     

    Bloomberg host Tom Keene noted America's rising gas prices and asked the energy secretary, "What is the Granholm plan to increase oil production in America?" 

    Granholm immediately began laughing.  "That is hilarious," she said. Would that I had the magic wand on this." 

    Fox Business

    Granholm responded that the OPEC cartel set oil prices and therefore she was powerless to do anything about it. It is shocking but not surprising to see the Energy Secretary so ignorant of market forces. Sure OPEC is a wanna-be cartel. But if it could set prices (it cannot) oil would hover around $60 just over the US production cost of about $57.   The Team Biden’s war on anything carbon, actions against pipelines, and the FED and Congress increasing the money supply are all reasons inflation is at a thirty year high. Granholm’s actions are far more likely to continue increasing energy prices. As noted here last week, from early 2020 oil prices have completed five waves up and are now consolidating around $80.  

    Biden and Jerome Powell can claim inflation is transitory but he Deere Union settlement argues otherwise. It includes an $8,500 restart bonus, a 10% immediate raise, two 5% future raises, and two large bonuses before 2026.   In the 1970s this was known as wage price push inflation. Inflation caused demands for higher wages which fed the inflation monster.

    So why are interest rates still so low if inflation is at a 30-year high? The answer is that trillion dollar purchases by the FED have kept demand for low rate Treasuries high. And the resulting money supply increase has fueled stock prices to new highs.

    Seeking to hitch their stock prices to the skyrocketing NASD, many companies are pretending to be ‘tech companies.’ Wework, an office rental company, tried this and now trades at 15% of its former high. Other examples are Peloton and Zillow.

    The stock market continues to exhibit narrower breadth. Like oil prices, it is consolidating around 3 DJIA 36.000. It would take a weekly break of 34,115 to turn the trend down.

    If the multi-trillion dollar Democrat juggernaut spending bill passes, look for even more goosed money supply and yes more inflation, too much money chasing too few goods. The Transportation Secretary is fantasizing that passing trillion dollar tax packages will improve anything.

     

  • Professor Elam

    Thursday Nov 18, 2021

    Cunningham competed in the 1500 m event at the 1932 and 1936 Summer Olympics and finished fourth and second, respectively.[1] While on the ship, traveling from the U.S. to Germany in 1936, he was voted "Most Popular Athlete" by his fellow Olympians.

    Cunningham won the Sullivan medal in 1933 for his achievements in middle-distance running. In 1934, he set the world record for the mile run at 4:06.8, which stood for three years. He also set world records in the 800 m in 1936 and in the indoor mile in 1938.[2][5] Also in 1938, Cunningham set a personal best time in the mile run at 4:04.4 testing Dartmouth College's Alumni Gymnasium indoor track, engineered to allow faster times than most indoor facilities. This time was not accepted as a world record, however, because Dartmouth had provided Cunningham pacing runners, which was against the rules at the time.[6]

    Cunningham's unachieved goal was a four-minute mile, a goal attempted and unmet by many other runners. Several theorists proclaimed it was impossible physiologically for humans. Some athletes tried running steady and fast-paced the whole time. Others tried to go steady for the first half then give it all they had. Glenn worried about the strength of his legs burned in his youth, so he started slow – running in the pack. He would be fresher in the second half – and would almost be sprinting the last 100 yards to the finish.

     

     
    Blue plaque recording the first ever sub-four-minute mile run by Roger Bannister on 6 May 1954 at Oxford University's Iffley Road Track.

     
    Oxford University's Iffley Road Track where Bannister broke the four-minute mile barrier

    A four-minute mile is the completion of a mile run (1.6 km) in four minutes or less. It was first achieved in 1954 by Roger Bannister, at age 25, in 3:59.4.[1] The "four-minute barrier" has since been broken by over 1,400 athletes,[2] and is now the standard of professional middle distance runners in several cultures. In the 65 years since, the mile record has been lowered by almost 17 seconds, and currently stands at 3:43.13, by Hicham El Guerrouj of Morocco, at age 24, in 1999.[3][4] Running a mile in four minutes translates to a speed of 15 miles per hour (24 km/h).[