Professor Elam

Pete Kendall ran another of my observations at his Socionomics Site.   Socionomics is the study of how popular culture influences events and eventually markets. In short the market reflects the feeling and moods of its millions of participants.  While bull  markets reflect ebullience and upbeat emoticons, bear markets are wrought with fear and despair.  Clearly we are in a bull market now and in fact all technical indicators are still up.  But multiple large markets do not turn on a dime all at once. They turn singly at first then as the new emotion grips the participants, many rush out the door of what was ‘long term investing.’  That was the mantra back in 1987, but look how many exited not just in one day that Octobers but throughout that fall.  A similar situation existed in 1972. A popular president had been re elected in a landslide promising an end to an uncertain war. The Dow Industrials were at a new high-1,000 after six years of see sawing from that level  in  1966.  You will recall that the Sound of Music was a popular movie of that 1966 era.  Then everything went, literally and figuratively to pot.

Now, the re elected president enjoys the same low poll numbers as Nixon.  The war drags on amid discontent.  A seismic shift in political leadership has occurred.  Gold is up 50%, usually a bear market signal. The dollar weakens.  This is not a prediction, just an observation.

Now check out the article at socionomics as well as Pete’s past article from March 10, 2006. As I observe, Americans are loving violence, and channels like FX are ready to produce plenty of it.  Notably DIRT follows the success of Nip n Tuck.  The last season featured stealing organs from unsuspecting donors and, well, as I said, things too vile for  this publication……….

DLE