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Hurricane Gustav, Not!

The thing that makes a disaster a disaster is the element of surprise. If the cunard Line had anticipated the iceberg, the Titanic sinking might have b een better managed.  Gustav was anticipated and indeed not a Katrina, but had it ben a Katrina, the loss of life would have been much lower due to expectations.

My point is that financial or natural disasters are unanticipated events. The financial crashed of 1929 and 1987 were unexpected, that was what intenesified the selling. The Koke Earthquake in Japan or the tsunami in Indonesia were not anticipated, ditto the earthquake in China recently the lack of warning made the events oh so much worse. It is important to understand this in analyzing financial events.

Oil was declining in price before Gustav, it briefly blipped, and then fell again today once the danger passed, the trend resumed. Remember the trend is your friend until that trend changes.

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6 responses to “Hurricane Gustav, Not!”

  1. Yovela Rico Avatar
    Yovela Rico

    I agree but, to tie into the previous post about Playing the Numbers, New Orleans had not seen such tragedy from a hurricane before Katrina and who knows if it will happen again. I’ve heard residents complain that the evacuation was uneccesary but, how were they to know that Gustav would have caused such low damage. What will they do when another hurricane comes knocking at their door? I think a lot of them will become numb to the warnings until a disaster hits again. Then there are the ones who moved away completely.

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  2. Jordyn Scheide Avatar
    Jordyn Scheide

    I think that New Orleans was better prepared for this hurricane, regardless if it was a real bad storm or just a little rain maker. The evacuations might have put many people out but if they would have not evacuated those people then it would probably have been a whole different story. Many other communities did suffer alot of damage but then you really don’t see the media covering the smaller towns. Louisiana must be prepared for whatever heads their way because much of the state sits below sea level.

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  3. Dennis Elam Avatar
    Dennis Elam

    Should we be apying for poeple to live in such areas obviously unsuitable for permanent human habitation, ie, below sea level, and prone to hurricanes, this is why Houston is the port and not Galveston after the Hurrican there in 1901

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  4. Yovela Rico Avatar
    Yovela Rico

    That’s an interesting thought but, the weather is so unpredictable. How are we able to decide what’s unsuitable for habitation? Kansas and Oklahoma tossle through a lot of Tornadoes. Florida also wrestles with Hurricanes. California endures massive earthquakes and the north bears the brunt of blizzards. What’s the standard amount of lives or dollars lost that needs to occur in order for someone to declare an area uninhabitable? Countries are building cities on top of oceans. Venice is dealing with this same issue. Global Warming is also posing a threat to these cities below sea level all over the world. The issue here is, does anyone want to invest in a city like New Orleans? Is it worth anyone enough to rebuild there? The technology is certainly available.

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  5. Dennis Elam Avatar
    Dennis Elam

    New Orleans is the only sunbelt city without a sunbelt economy. The oil industry would logically be located there, but it is not, it is in Houston. New Orleans is below sea level. This owuld seem more suited to a tourist destinaiton than a permanent place of residence…

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  6. Frederico Vogiatzis Avatar
    Frederico Vogiatzis

    I say its better to be safe than sorry. Everythings going to be shutdown so they should look at the evacuation as a vacation.

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