• Professor Elam

     A good friend called to report that the bay areas of south Texas are already seeing the crimp from reduced trade. The US has stopped cross border trucking. And so Mexico has trade sanctioned 90 US food and consumer items, making them uncompetitive in Mexico. Meanwhile the US helps suppliers for US automakers Ford GM Chrysler but not the foreign makers here in the US. And so we favor the cities with US plants but not those with foreign plants, understandable but discriminatory. 

    This is only the start of increased nationalism across the world. 

    Dave Hendricks in his column in the Sat San Antonio paper notes this is a mistake. 

    And of course Congress is selectively singly out which execs need to give money back. This worried even Jay Leno as he spoke with President Obama on the tonite show.  Gee who is the next enemy. Now even smaller companies are canceling routine sales bonus trips for insurance salesmen and such. The losers, hotel employees, the little people. 

    A few years back Congress got the great idea of slapping a sales tax on yachts over a certain length. The theory was the same we hear from Barack now, the buyers can afford it, what happened?  Work at US shipyards showed to a stop, all the boats were then brokered overseas exempt from the tax. The losers, US shipyard workers and brokers. Singling out selective groups for harsh punishment brings unintended consequences. 
  • Professor Elam

    Thomas Ellis and Dr. Granville Coggs, Tuskegee Airmen, visited the San Antonio A & M Campus February 25, 2009. We were delighted at their stories and affable manner. Dr. Mary Grams and Exec Dean Dr. Carolyn Green visit with Carolin Sinkfield, Dept Educaiton, and Dr. Granville Coggs. Six of the airmen live here in San Antonio. See the photo album on sidebar for more pictures.

    Learn more at www.sactai.com

    P2250030

  • Professor Elam

    Fed Chief Bernake said the FED has helped the situation.

    I guess this means that the entire banking system has not completley melted as CITI has rallied from 1.05 to nearly 3 bucks. And frankly I think that is what he means, the entire system did not collapse.

  • Professor Elam

    I visited he Cortez SA Public Libarary this morning, try it you will like it. Cortez is handily located just one stoplight north of Gillette at Hunter and Poteet. It is well laid out with windows on the north and south walls for natural light without the harsh afternoon sun. They have a nice periodical collection as well as music CDs. And there is a complete book collection, this would include books on business!

    Stop by for a visit, it is another handy resource next to our campus.

    Cortez Library

  • Professor Elam

    In a case reminiscent of the KPMG $450M non deductible fine by the IRS, a BDO former partner

    plead guilty to conspiring to tax fraud.  Please read this article.

    Now, things are not quite as they appear. After all

    People do not go to cpa firms merely to have their tax returns prepared, HR Block can do that

    They seek hlep in avoiding taxes, which is not the same as tax evasion….

    Tax personnel are of course like all firm members urged to maximize the profit in their section of the cpa firm

    And believe me, when they do, they are put on display at the annual meeting, the point being, if the rest of you would emulate this behavior we could really make some money

    In the KPMG case, the tax partners were 'thrown to the wolves' in my opinion after being hailed as real 'producers' for the firm.

    KPMG paid the non deductible fine without ever being tried!  the Feds were fearful that too much prosecution would collapse KPMG ala Andersen and there would simply not be enough big cpa firms to do all the intl work

    My point being, as teh song says, one day you are the windshield, the next day you are the bug…

    We shold highlight this as a contemporary topic in audit and tax class.

  • Professor Elam

    The SEC has never really audited the firms they oversee. This is the reason SEC Chief Cox put $54 M into XBRL trying to get information so they could at least start. And so CFO reports that XBRL

    will be required by second quarter of 2009.

    XBRL stands for Extensible Business Reporting Language. It brings database to financial information. The idea is click on a number and it takes you to the relevant information without having to search the report. 
  • Professor Elam

    The "Economic Stimulus Package" Explained

    We don't know who came up with the following analogy (we can't take credit for it), but it does an excellent job of illustrating how Keynesian-style economic stimulus programs work, or, to put it more aptly, don't work.

    Shortly after class, an economics student approaches his professor and says, "I don't understand this stimulus bill. Can you explain it to me?"

    The professor replied, "I don't have any time to explain it at my office, but if you come over to my house on Saturday and help me with my weekend project, I'll be glad to explain it to you."

    The student agreed.
     
    At the agreed-upon time, the student showed up at the professor's house. The professor stated that the weekend project involved his backyard pool. They both went out back to the pool, and the professor handed the student a bucket.
     
    Demonstrating with his own bucket, the  professor said, "First, go over to the deep end, and fill your bucket with as much water as you can."
     
    The student did as he was instructed.

    The professor then continued, "Follow me over to the shallow end, and then dump all the water from your bucket into it."

    The student was naturally confused, but did as he was told.
     
    The professor then explained they were going to do this many more times, and began walking back to the deep end of the pool. The confused student asked, "Excuse me, but why are we doing this?"
     
    The professor matter-of-factly stated that he was trying to make the shallow end much deeper.
     
    The student didn't think the economics professor was serious, but figured that he would find out the real story soon enough. However, after the 6th trip between the shallow end and the deep end, the student began to become worried that his economics professor had gone mad.
     
    The student finally replied, "All we're doing is wasting valuable time and effort on unproductive pursuits. Even worse, when this process is all over, everything will be at the same level it was before, so all you'll really have accomplished is the destruction of what could have been truly productive action!"

    The professor put down his bucket and replied with a smile, "Congratulations. You now understand the stimulus bill."

    We think the shifting-water-from-one-end-of-the-pool-to-the-other analogy is excellent, although for two main reasons it actually downplays the absurdity of so-called "stimulus" programs. First, while transferring water from the deep to the shallow end a significant amount will be spilled. This spillage is the government's take (the costs to pay all the bureaucrats and other government expenses). Second, the water transfer momentarily creates the impression that there is more water in the pool than there actually is, which, in turn, leads to more bad decisions.

    Rather than everything being at the same level it was before, the act of re-distributing the water will cause the entire pool to become shallower.

     
     
  • Professor Elam

    What’s
    Your Currency?

    Imagine that the world is a series of disconnected
    islands.  Each island produces a
    different product. And so it is necessary for the islanders to trade with one
    another to get products not produced on their island. And so the outrigger
    dugouts start plying their way from island to island. By mutual agreement so
    many pineapples will be worth perhaps a shirt.  A dugout canoe will no doubt command many pineapples as
    fruit perishes but the dugout is a long lived transportation asset. Eventually
    as trade swells, it is simply too difficult to move pineapples for shirts.
    Barter gives way to easily transportable currency.  And so the islands issue their own currencies. The paper
    money has its own commodity emblem on the currency. And so pineapple currency
    is deemed to trade for so many shirts or even dugout canoes.  Which is all fine, as long as the
    island really has the pineapples or shirts to back up their claim to currency.

     

    Well in the big picture of things, nothing has changed. We
    all still deal in pineapples and canoes. Governments however no longer tie the
    currency to the number of pineapples or canoes they produce. Now currency is
    printed at will regardless of the pineapples that stand behind it.  So demand pineapples from that  island in exchange for your currency and
    you will get, well, the promise of more currency. Yes, sure, we have a
    temporary shortage of pineapples per currency but once the new crop comes in,
    not to worry. But indeed, the other islanders, eyeing their hard work in
    producing canoes, become reluctant to take the pineapple currency for their
    canoes.

    Fast forward to islanders traveling by Lear Jets in Armani
    suits and gee, here we are. On Wednesday the U S Dollar dropped about 2.9%. The
    shares of Transocean RIG rose 2.9%. This is no accident. The traders at RIG are
    bidding up the value of their canoe inventory.  A collection of offshore rigs is indeed a collection of
    valuable dugout canoes.   And indeed, this morning oil is up about
    $2, a bit more than 3%. 

    The currency of Andrews, Saudi Arabia, and the Soviet Union
    is oil. It is no accident that Vladimir Putin is growing ever more anxious
    about using the fragile and multiplying dollar in exchange for his precious energy
    supply. After all, other than military, Russia still has no consumer
    production.  Our friends to the
    south in Mexico face a double whammy of diminishing oil reserves and violence
    which  decreases the tourist trade.

    On the weekly charts, unleaded gasoline and crude oil have
    moved up nicely. This column suggested that $40 would be the level to hold.  It apparently has done just that.  Each trading month has bounced there
    since the lows of the fall. Crude oil has now moved up to $50!  Perhaps OPEC has cut back but for sure,
    the FED has unleashed lots of pineapple (U S Dollars) currency.   The entire energy complex is not
    in gear yet.  Natural gas and
    heating oil have not broken to the upside on the weekly charts. No doubt some
    of this is that unleaded gasoline typically moves up before the summer driving
    season, though that is liable to be a weak market this year. Natural gas is
    coming into the buying season for next fall. And so it languishes at $3.75.

    This suggests a bear market bounce more than the start of
    another move to $145. But for the time being, it should put some back to work.
    Baker Hughes just laid off another 1,500 workers, bad move.  Such short term reactions mean
    increased costs in terms of unemployment premiums. And then the firm will
    scramble to find needed skill sets as demand comes back.  This is a business that requires a long
    term perspective.

    We do NOT make recommendations here. But our proxy for the
    West Texas economy remains Patterson Energy, PTEN. It rose 22% on Wednesday.
    Hmm, sounds like dugout canoes (workover rigs) just got more valuable in terms
    of pineapple (U S Dollar) currency.

     

  • Professor Elam

    Natasha Richrdson, wife of actor Liam Neeson and an accomplished actress, has died of an apparent head injury while snow skiing. Oddly she seemed okay so the paramedics did not examine her. It was only later that she began feeling ill. 

    You will recall that Sony Bono and one of the Kennedys skied into fixed objects and died .  Kennedy was looking backwards playing a game of catch. The ski patrol had warned his group to discontinue the practice.

    As a former snow skier, I can only reflect amazement that there are not more injuries. As the article notes, she was not wearing a helmet, and that might have saved her, my speculation.  After all, bicycle helmets are seen on near everyone riding a bike. Those not wearing  a motorcycle helmet usually pay the ultimate price in a crash. 

    Snow skiing, bicycling and motorcyles are all unforgiving pursuits. Let's be careful out there. 
  • Professor Elam

    Well OK he says it was just a rhetorical flourish.

    But again, a socionomic analysis told us to expect that people would be getting more and more mad, now it is here. 

    Meanwhile the FED announced it would, now take this in slowly, borrow money to buy Treasury securities that are sold using of course money borrowed from the Chinese. This is known as economic planning in Washington DC. 
     
    The result was, amazingly enough, a move up in bond prices. We should be getting to a top in bond prices with these sorts of shenanigans going on.