Wed March 30, 2011

We will post out Tuesday update tomorrow; it is long term view using one stock of where this market really is in terms of recovery. Stay tuned for that. In the mean time from the news today

In India Doubts Gather Ovewr Rising Giant's Course, WSJ 3/30/2011 Page A1

In recent months, the mood in teh planet's most populate democracy has soured badly – to the point that some of India$'s richest people have begun to complain that things are seriously amiss.

Observation Social mood is determined endogenously, from within a person not from outside sources. We pegged the Bombay Exchange as topping last November and said so right here. Now it is front page news that the mood has changed. Bear markets also happen in fractrals. Here is more evidence it is underway. Actually Jim Rogers in his round the world tours predicted that India would have lots of problems, too muchy red tape, too much bureaucracy. Indeed this article reports China has added ten times as much power as India has in the same period of time. The Article bylines, Flawed Miracle.

ON page C3 Trump's son in law is over his head in the most expensive property ever purchased, $1.8

billion at the time. Now he is $3.5 M a month short on the payments.

Monday March 28, 2011

David E. Davis is probably not a name most of you would recognize. This is regrettable as he loomed large as the premier automotive journalist  ever since I started reading about automobiles about 1962. Great writers can write on any topic as the byline linked so mentions. But he chose to write about cars which as he says can be a journey in themselves. Going great places in great transport with great friends, yep that's what the journey is all about. 

He mentioned Tom Wolfe as an inspiration when he began as Editor of Car and Driver. Wolfe was certainly one of the premier writers of the last half century. And indeed he made his mark with the also writing about cars in The Tangerine Flaked Streamlined Baby. What you don't know Tom Wolfe, well put his name in search at Amazon and learn a bit. 

Great writing to me is simply that which attracts the reader and calls for more of the same, a page turner to be sure and another installment around the bend, that's the ticket. Davis created that Theater of the Mind, letting me tag along on his adventures in Europe, reflecting on what a reincarnation as a sea otter might hold, and even recently why Gaddafi should be held for trial by murdering a friend,  an exec at VW of America in the Lockerbie case. 

I can recall being the object of some ridicule in my UT Austin MBA class by quoting Davis, (what could a car mag writer know they chorused) but I don't recall a single student advancing another author as writing mentor, so there. 

Should my writing grow boring or pedestrian or assume that gosh awful academic gotta write it this way, I can only hope that the ghost of this fine journalist will look over my shoulder, gently tut tut me for veering into boredom or some such, and remind that great writing is both  educational and entertaining, thanks, don't let me forget. 

Friday March 18, 2011

No not the one in the 1980s about the Huxtables, the short lived two season Bill Cosby Show from 1969-70

 which followed Cosby's success on I Spy. Interestingly the co creator of this show would help fashion the latter Hustables show in 1984. By that time the bear market had ended and upbeat outlook was in fashion.  The result of course was a smash hit as it was in tune with the prevailing mood. 

We recently did a presentation using Socionomics, the social science of prediction based on exogenously formed mood, to examine the careers of Black Entertainers. We noted that Cosby was a bull market figure. He came to prominence in the mid 1960s and I Spy went off the air in 1967 as the mood turned more negative. He had clout at this point but even that apparently faded in his arguments with NBC over including  a laugh track in the series, he did not want one. The description says this may have been the reason the highly regarded series was not renewed. We would contend that Cosby's typically family friendly  upbeat outlook was out of step with Woodstock, Viet Nam, and the Chicago Seven that were grabbing headlines at the time. 

In the link above note the power cast Cicely Tyson and a music track by Quincy  Jones no less. His star power was such that he attracted Wally Cox, Lou Gossett Jr. and Henry Fonda as guests. This is an interesting addition to the transition from Cosby's hit comedy spot in 1964, Noah, to the dark side of the human experience showcased by Richard Pryor.